OSCAR WATCH 2022 -THE PREDICTIONS

This year feels like the hardest to decide. I have watched most of the films within the last week so that is a lot of film washing around in my head.

You can read what I think about all the films I have watched here.

The other thing is the Academy has really opened up who it has let in to vote, it has been taking on all sort of members, and not necessarily those with credentials, depending on what sources you read. This makes predictions less predictable. In the past the SAGs were a great indication as those voting in those categories were pretty much the same people voting in the Academy categories. This is not the case anymore. 

Also The Hollywood Reporter has been doing a few 'interviews' with new members - anonymously - where they explain their reasoning for how they voted for. Oh vey, no wonder they are anonymous. From I just like that film, I can see x and y are better films, but I like Z so I have voted for it in every category OR My cousin is the blah blah on this film so that is why I am voting for it. Not good people!!

So this is just me saying, it's gonna be a bumpy ride, anything can happen, and it feels more like stabbing in the dark choosing who WILL win this year than ever before.

Each year the Oscars gets less and less interesting to me, with me exclaiming at the end of the show, that's it no more. But of course, the Oscar season rolls around and I am sucked into it's vortex yet again. Happily so. I have being doing this for so many decades, I cannot think of anything else.

So let's get into it!

Best Picture

Here are the 10 films in order of my preference:

1. Belfast - so much heart against a terrible situation, plus the music

2. Nightmare Alley - stunning visually, get acting cast, huge story

3. Licorice Pizza - hilarious, great acting, great soundtrack, so much love

4. The Power of the Dog - stunning cinematography, great acting and direction

5. Drive my car - fascinating storyline, well filmed, wonderful acting.

6. Dune - visually magnificent, great story

7. Don't Look Up - great story, funny, superb cast

8. Coda - nice little story, ensemble cast, music

9. King Richard - good story, great performance from Smith.

10. West Side Story - please note I did not see this film. Whilst I love musicals, I have never warmed to the original and feel much the same about Spielberg.

This is crazy, I still think The Power of the Dog, whilst not my favourite, is the BEST film and seems to be the one everyone is predicting. However there seems to be a late groundswell for Coda. People are also throwing around Drive my Car and West Side Story, with 10 films to choose from anything can happen.

What will win: The Power of the Dog

What should win: Belfast 

Actor in a Leading Role

1. Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog

2. Andrew Garfield in Tick Tick Boom

3. Denzil Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth

4. Will Smith in King Richard

5. Javier Bardem in Being the Ricardos

Garfield could be a spoiler here, but I think Smith is it.

Who will win: Will Smith 

Who should win: Benedict Cumberbatch

Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog

2. Ciaran Hinds in Belfast

3. Troy Kotsur in Coda

4. Jesse Plemoms in The Power of the Dog

5. JK Simmons in Being the Ricardos    

This seems a no-brainer.

Who will win: Troy Kotsur

Who should win: Kodi Smit-McPhee

Actress in a Leading Role

1. Olivia Coleman in The Lost Daughter

2. Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye

3. Penelope Cruz in Parallel Mothers

4. Kristen Stewart in Spencer

5. Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos

This was difficult, but I stand by Chastain who shone making a difficult character redeemable. Stewart's name has been tossed around, and I guess anything can happen, but I stand by my choices.

Who will win: Jessica Chastain

Who should win: Olivia Coleman

Actress in a Supporting Role

1. Jessie Buckley in The Lost Daughter

2. Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog

3. Judi Dench in Belfast

4. Aunjanue Ellis in King Richard

5. Ariana Du Bose in West Side Story

I think Ariana has this locked in.

Who will win:  Ariana Du Bose

Who should win: Jessie Buckley

Animated Feature Film

I have not watched any of these films, Encanto, Luca, and Flee seem to be the ones that are most mentioned. But Encanto seems the likely winner.

Who will win:  Encanto

Cinematography

1. The Power of the Dog

2. Nightmare Alley

3. Dune

4. The Tragedy of Macbeth

5. West Side Story

Some great cinematography within the 4 I have seen, but there is only one winner in my mind.

Who will/should win: The Power of the Dog

Costume Design

It is a no-brainer that a film about costume design should win for it's outrageous and stunning costumes.

Who will/should win: Cruella

Directing

1. Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog

2. Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza

3. Kenneth Branagh for Belfast

4. Ryusuke Hamaguci for Drive my Car

5. Steven Speilberg for West Side Story

Whilst 2, 3 and 4 I'd be happy to see take home a golden boy for this category and all totally deserved too, it is Jane's year and so very well overdue. The Piano should have won, but it never stood a chance against Schindler's List.

Who will/should win: Jane Campion

Documentary (feature)

I don't know much about this category, sadly, this year, but I do know everyone says this film will win, and it sounds terrific!

Who will win: Summer of Soul

Documentary (short subject)

I have done a little reading and it comes down to 2 shorts, Queen of Basketball and Audible. So I tossed a coin.

Who will win: Queen of Basketball

Film Editing

Seems to be between Dune and Tick Tick Boom.

Who will win:  Dune

Who should win: Tick Tick Boom

International Feature Film

The worst person in the world is getting a lot of love, I have not seen it. I have heard great things about The Hand of God and I love Paulo's film and television. BUt Drive my Car is the one I have seen, the one I loved, and the one everyone thinks will win.

Who will/should win: Drive my Car

Makeup and Hairstyling

It all comes down to Tammy Faye, without that transformation over so many decades, Chastain would be lost.

Who will/should win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Music (original score)

It is between The Power of the Dog and Dune, I am unsure.

Who will win: Dune

Who should win:  The Power of the Dog

Music (original song)

It seems like it is between Billie Eilish for Bond, Beyonce for King Richard and Lin-Manuel Miranda for Tick Tick Boom. And lord knows the Academy probably wish they could hand out three. I have no bloody idea. Bond seems to be edging others out.

Who will win: No Time to Die

Who should win: Down to Joy from Belfast, because despite Van's politics in his old age, he still writes a feckin' brilliant song, so brilliant, I thought I had heard it before when indeed I had not. 

Production Design

Dune, West Side Story, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth, and Nightmare Alley. All are superb in their own way, however...

Who will/should win: Nightmare Alley

Short Film (Animated)

No idea, but this one is being talked up everywhere and is an Aardman production so it makes sense.

Who will win: Robin Robin

Short Film (Live Action)

Again no idea, but Riz Ahmed is linked to Long Goodbye which has been turning up in all the articles, so...

Who will win: The Long Goodbye

Sound

I have no idea here, some are saying Dune, some are saying Bond.

Who will win: Dune

Visual Effects

Ditto, Dune V Free Guy it appears.

Who will win: Dune

Writing (adapted screenplay)

1. Drive my Car

2. The Power of the Dog

3. The Lost Daughter

4. Dune

5. Coda

Truly, any one of these could win, this is a difficult category this year. Usually - but not always - Best Picture wins Writing also, so who knows.

Who will win: Coda is gaining momentum here. I rank it last because I have seen the original and there is not much change, but the Americans will have no idea about this, hence the unnecessary remake in the first instance.

Who should win: Drive my car - they get Murakami's nuances, and turns a couple of short stories into a great big story, genius!

Writing (original screenplay)

1. Licorice Pizza

2. Belfast

3. Don't Look Up

4. King Richard

5. The Worst Person in the World

Another tough one and Don't Look up could be the spoiler.

Who will win: Belfast 

Who should win: Licorice Pizza