OSCAR WATCH 2026 - the show, the fashion

Oscars! Oscars, Oscars!

You need to read that in the voice of Billy Crystal singing his Oscars Song!

First up, let's look at how I did with my predictions.

Oscar Watch 2026: the predictions

20 out of 24 categories correct is pretty good, 2020 was the last time that happened!

I didn't get the Documentary Feature or the Animated Short correct - these ones are difficult, although as a documentary fan I am disappointed...but I haven't seen any of them.

The other 2 may have been easier had I given them more thought. I listed Sinners for Casting, the first time the Academy has had it, I followed the SAGS, but didn't really think that if I was sure One Battle was going to win the top awards, it would make sense for it to win this too...oh well.

And had I realised the cinematographer for Sinners was a woman, I may have made a different choice, but I will stand by my opinion that the cinematography for Sinners wasn't that great.

Let's look at the host.

Conan is back for a second go and was wonderful. Funny, cheeky, political and just right. His opening as Gladys running through film sets was note perfect, his UK joke (look it up) also just right, and Josh Groban and the Opera bit hilariously great. Everything else throughout his hosting gig was faultless. We will have him back again...surely!

Matt Berry as the voice of the Oscars was another inspired casting, doing only what he can do!

I loved the Sinners musical piece, it was a perfect recreation of the film - which I did enjoy, well, the musical parts of it especially. Adding the ballerina was also perfect. TC copped a lot that evening, but he deserved every joke, and took it with good grace.

Presenting is a thankless task and there was nothing to really snigger at, some were more interesting than others. I loved the cast member from each film talking about casting, well done Academy. Jimmy Kimmel was perfect for Docos, funny and political, getting stuck right into his nemesis. The Bridesmaid cast were funny. Pedro and Sigourney were cute and Sigourney quoting her famous line from Aliens, which I love, was a highlight! 

Anna Wintour and Anne Hathaway were great, funny and on pointe. Chris Evans and Robert Downey Jnr, with Channing Tatum were quite good too. Javier Bardem was very political and rightly so, man he is hot! Ewan and Nicole were sweet.

The winners were all fine and there wasn't a bad speech. The three wins for Frankenstein were well deserved, and for such a well-crafted film it made sense it won the key craft Oscars. The female cinematographer pulled a Francis and got all the women to stand up and had a lovely moment.

The acting speeches were great, emotional and joyous, though I missed hearing what Sean Penn would have made of his third Oscar. The Documentary winners (shorts, and feature) gave some of the best speeches of the night.

But to hear PT Anderson speak 3 times (writer, director, producer) was a gift. A quietly spoken man, who has given me so much joy over the years. He is one of my favourite film-makers, an original auteur, and a man of vision. Thrilled!!!

The best part of the show was the In Memoriam...yep you read that right.  When so many masters of the craft die in one year, some unexpectedly, you expect something grand. And that we got.

Billy Crystal came out to speak about his friend, Rob Reiner, the first time we have really seen him in public since Rob and his wife died so terribly. He was the consummate performer, the show must go on, and spoke perfectly about him. Revealing a stage full of actors from Rob's golden era. It was an eclectic bunch of actors, some smiling through sad faces, and some looking quite sad. Fitting and perfect.

From left to right:

Michael McKean and Christopher Guest from Spinal Tap

Jerry O'Connell and Will Wheaton from Stand By Me

Fred Savage, Cary Elwes, Mandy Patinkin, and Carol Kane from The Princess Bride

Billy and Meg from When Harry Met Sally

Kiefer Sutherland, Demi Moore, and Kevin Pollack from A Few Good Men

Kathy Bates from Misery

Annette Benning from The American President

John Cusack and Daphne Zuniga from The Sure Thing

This had me in tears, big time. I loved all those films, and to see those amazing stars reunited for such a sad reason...it was too much.

But, this is what only the Oscars can do, gather the greats together.

The memoriam then commenced to the back-drop of The Princess Bride soundtrack, with Rachel McAdams doing a beautiful tribute to Claudia Cardinale, Diane Ladd, Catherine O'Hara, and especially Diane Keaton. 

And just when I thought I was all cried out, my lady Barbra Streisand came out to pay her tribute to Robert Redford. She spoke so lovingly and she sang. Now we all know Babs - as she reluctantly let RR call her - get incredibly nervous singing in public being the perfectionist she is, and hasn't sung in public since 2011. She sang a few lines of The Way We Were (one of my all-time favourite films), she wasn't bad but she wasn't great and I just do not want to hear anyone dissing her.

This section of tributes actually lifted the ceremony!!

I really have nothing to criticise, nothing was bad or fell flat, there was some so so moment, but nothing too bad and I felt it was one of the best Oscars shows for a long time!

Actually no, Nick Cave was up for Best Song, and he didn't perform!!!

Shame on you Academy!

If you wanted to know what I thought of the films again, here is my post on them.

And now for the fashion:

Here are my favourites:

My best dressed for the night were Mikey Madison and Rose Byrne.


Thanks for reading, see you next year!!!

OSCAR WATCH 2026: The Predictions

Oscar Watch 2026

or rather 2025!

For those new to Oscar Watch, I have been blogging about my love for the Oscars and predicting (or rather, trying to predict) the winners for many years. But I have been doing this for much, much longer than my blog, the earliest I can find is 1999. My average of correct predictions is 15-17 out of 24/25/16. My best is 2018 with 23 predictions correct, and I have gotten 20 a few times. I have definitely improved over the years, but a lot of changes in voting, membership in recent years have made it more difficult to predict. I have a lot of reputable sources I read, along with the knowledges of what is usually likely to win based on previous years. But like any ballot, there are wild cards, they can through you.

So, I like to share who I think will win, and who I would like to win. They are sometimes the same, but quite often not. 

Oh, and do not mention the Golden Globes to me, nothing irritates me more. Yes, I watch them because I do love a spectacle. But what wins there has absolutely no indication as to who might win at The Oscars. The Hollywood Foreign Press vote for the GGs, and they are a strange bunch of people from each/most (who can really know!?!) countries. The Australian rep is always someone you have never heard of. They have more acting categories and for a very long time you could buy a win! True!! Supposedly not so much anymore. So if I read an article that mentions them, I can tell the person writing it has absolutely no understanding of things and is not a proper journalist!

Rant over, let's begin!

Best Picture

Here is my personal ranking:

One Battle After Another

Frankenstein

Bugonia

Hamnet

Sentimental Value

Sinners

F1

Train Dreams

Marty Supreme

Can't rank The Secret Agent as I did not see it.

This has been between One Battle After Another and Sinners, and One Battle seems to be edging the other out.

Who will win: One Battle After Another

Who I want to win: One Battle After Another

Actor - Leading

Extraordinary acting from everyone.

Michael B Jordan's duel role surely has it in the bag!

Leo could get up and I am there for it. 

If Ethan wins, you will hear me screaming all over the world, lol!

Who will win: Michael B Jordan

Who I want to win: Ethan Hawke

Actor - Supporting

Anyone can win this, but I think Penn will get his third gold man and deservingly so. But I have a soft spot for Elordi's Monster in Frankenstein.

Who will win: Sean Penn

Who I want to win: Jacob Elordi

Actress - Leading

So many stunning performances, give them all an Oscar!

Who will win: Jessie Buckley

Who I want to win: Jessie Buckley

Actress - Supporting

Amy has been lauding it over the rest the entire season. Wunmi Mosaku could be a surprise win.

Who will win: Amy Madigan

Who I want to win: Amy Madigan

Director

Surely after all these years it is Paul Thomas Anderson.

Who will win: Paul Thomas Anderson

Who I want to win: Paul Thomas Anderson 

Original Screenplay

Who will win: Sinners

Who I want to win: Blue Moon

Adapted Screenplay

Who will win: One Battle after Another

Who I want to win: Frankenstein

Cinematography

Who will win: One Battle After Another

Who I want to win: Frankenstein

International Feature

Who will win: Sentimental Value

Who I want to win: Sentimental Value

Documentary Feature

I have seen none of these, so going on my research.

Who will win: The Perfect Neighbor

Animated Feature

Again, yet to see.

Who will win: KPop Demon Hunters

Original Song

Diane Warren will lose again!

Who will win: Golden by KPop Demon Hunters

Who I want to win: Train Dreams from Train Dreams - Nick Cave, but of course!

Original Score

A film with music throughout must win this one and should win this one.

Who will win: Sinners

Who I want to win: Sinners

Film Editing

Who will win: One Battle After Another

Production Design/Costume Design/Hair and Makeup

Who will win: Frankenstein

Who I want to win: Frankenstein

Visual Effects

Who will win: Avatar: fire and ash

Who I want to win: F1

Sound

Who will win: F1

Who I want to win: F1

Animated Short

Who will win: Retirement Plan

Live Action Short

Who will win: The Singers

What I want to win: A friend of Dorothy

Documentary Short

Who will win: All the empty rooms

Casting

Who will win: Sinners

Who I want to win: Sinners

I will do a what actually happened/fashion blog after the big event tomorrow afternoon.

Enjoy, and tell me your thoughts!!!

OSCAR WATCH 2026: the movies

Frankenstein

Guillermo del Toro is such an auteur, his vision is always astonishing and yet beautiful. Frankenstein is obviously a labour of love for him. I heard him talking about not using AI, and only minimal special effects (for landscapes and animals I believe) but when it came to the castle, structures, laboratory etc, everything was built from scratch. I love this so very much. And it shows on the screen, everything has depth and beauty, and creates wonder and awe.

I loved this version of one of my all-time favourite books. It was beautiful, expansive, clever, dark, and gothic, just as Mary Shelley intended. Oscar Isaac and Christopher Waltz were manic and crazy and wild, but Oscar Jacobi brought beauty and heart to the role unlike I have ever witnessed or imagined. This is quite amazing given how much make up he was covered in. To make you and the appropriately named Mia Goth fall in love with him, showcases how brilliant del Toro and Jacobi are.

This was a stunning movie, I feel it will and should win some of the production nominations, and early on I was sure Jacobi would win the Best Supporting Actor, but maybe not as momentum gathers for Sean Penn. I feel it will win a lot of the production and design categories as it deservedly should. But there are more popular films this year and to me this is a shame.

Sinners

I really struggled with Sinners. I love a music film and I love a vampire film, and I guess they can cross over, but I just didn't feel it. I know many will disagree. I will admit the more time that passes since I watched the film, the more it does grow on me. I didn't dislike Sinners, I quite enjoyed it, I just didn't love it.

I thought it was beautifully filmed, but I also could see issues with some of the grand landscapes etc - they looked fake, unsure if they were but there was something distracting (in a bad way) about the sweeping shots.

The acting was great, it is a superb cast. Like a few films this year it was not the sum of its parts. I am torn over what to think in terms of the Oscars. It is up for a lot and will not go home empty handed. It may sweep the field, or it's rival, One Battle After Another may, or they may split it. I have some deep thinking before my predictions come out. Though it seems a certainty for Casting, Original Screenplay, and Score.

One Battle After Another

This was a wild ride and I bloody loved it. It took a little while to get into. The first 40 minutes or so, I was what on earth is going on, or rather, where is this going? But I was in, a phenomenal cast, some truly great character acting from great character actors and some amazing new-comers. The big Oscar tragedy/omission was Chase Infiniti. 

It was her entrance (well, her second entrance) that utterly blew this film from really good to fucking great. The heart and soul of the film, she stands head to head with Leo and Sean and steals almost every scene! That is something. She should have been nominated.

This is a film that is very difficult and complex to explain, it is an amalgamation of so much I don't want to give too much away. It commences in the past, the late 70s, revolution is in the air, the story is set up in ways you are unsure of until they unfold 16 years later. And this is when the ante is upped, and the wild ride really begins. Everyone connected with the revolution are separated but trained in protocols should old adversaries arise. And they do, and the chaos begins.

This is a thrilling movie to watch, the acting is superb, things start to interweave and tie in beautifully, I love a film with pay off and there is plenty in this. It is deeply dramatic, and so very funny. I believe it is Leo in one of his finest roles, nuanced and clever, dramatic and hilarious. Ditto for Benicio Del Toro and Sean Penn. In fact, Sean Penn is absolutely mesmerising in this. I am not even going to try and describe his character and the character arc...spoilers!!! Suffice to say he is grotesquely charismatic.

I have been a fan of Paul Thomas Anderson since Boogie Nights and Magnolia, and have always felt he was following in the footsteps of the great Robert Altman in terms of expansive casts with overlapping storytelling. He has been nominated over 10 times and NEVER won, surely this is his year. I think the film is a masterpiece and one of the best of the year, but of course, it is not up to me ;)
At this point he should win Adapted Screenplay, I am still weighing up on the rest.

Song Sung Blue

I loved this movie. I am a huge Neil Diamond fan, and I knew the film's story. Based on a true story about a couple who are in a Neil Diamond tribute band. It is a wild ride; it is joyous, funny, clever, dramatic, and melodramatic. But it hits the right note (pun intended). Hugh Jackman is really great in this, but Kate Hudson is phenomenal! She is just amazing. The supporting cast (Michael Imperoli, Jim Belushi, and Fisher Stevens head them) are also great.

Song Sung Blue has so much heart. And the bonus, so much Neil Diamond music. Including the obvious stuff (I can seriously live without hearing Sweet Caroline again) and lots of lesser known (not to me) stuff. I grew up in a house where Friday night fun was listening to Hot August Night, so I totally understood why the characters love Neil so much. Whilst there is joy and this is an uplifting movie, it does have some dark turns. The movie stayed with me for ages.

Only one Oscar Nom, for Kate Hudson, who totally deserves it, but it is a tough field this year. 

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

This was another wild ride. Rose Byrne plays a psychologist with a sick daughter. Her husband (Christian Slater) is a captain at sea, and her colleague is her own psychologist (Conan O'Brien, in a wonderful serious turn), but he is trying to ditch her. Her daughter is all demanding (you never see her just hear her), and when the ceiling of their apartment falls in they have to decamp to a nearby motel. And one of her clients disappears leaving her - literally - holding the baby. Much more happens, but spoilers!

Byrne is superb as a mother on the edge of insanity and despair. Pushing life to the extreme, and exhausted beyond all comprehension. I would love to see her win this one, but it is a solid field. Her Best Actress is the only Oscar nom for this film.

F1

This is the age old comeback story, and set against my beloved F1 backdrop, of course I loved it. I was surprised to see it make the top ten, but the production values are superb, so maybe not that surprised.

I grew up with motor racing, and particularly F1, I have been to many races in Melbourne. I have not been closely following it for a few years now, mostly due to not having enough time to commit to a racing year, but one of my gripes over the years has been the loss of personality and risk. Obviously I want the racing to be safe, but the personalities have lost a little, well...personality.

Anyway, Pitt is great as the racer on the comeback trail, the shots of racing and behind the scenes ring very true. Shot within the actual racing calendar, this is a lot of fun and thrills. It should win Best Sound.

Sentimental Value

A Father tries to reconnect with his children while filming a film about his mother and his childhood in his family home. Stellan Skarsgard is wonderful as the ageing actor/father coming to terms with a lot of trauma whilst on the comeback to film.

The actresses playing his daughters are wonderful, as is Elle Fanning, playing, or trying to play his mother. The film uncovers generational trauma, and it walks a fine line of being overly dramatic, but it gets away with it. I enjoyed this one, the acting is great. Stellan may win the Supporting Acting Oscar, but it should win International Feature.

Marty Supreme

There were some really great parts in this movie, but overall I found it a red hot mess. Chalamet is good, but the film just doesn't seem to know what it was trying to do. The setting and ping pong was initially interesting and intriguing, but that was ditched in the middle to try and be a bit of a gangster film. It was all over the shop, and way too long.

Actors in supporting roles needed to be fleshed out more and given more screen time. Look, I have always been irritated by Gwyneth, but she played the aging screen actress so very well, I wanted more. Had that part been developed properly, she would have gotten a supporting nom. And Fran Drescher was exceptional as Marty's Mum, getting one phone and 2 smaller scenes, she stole the show. Had that been fleshed out more, she probably would be winning the supporting actress Oscar. 

I will be very surprised if it wins anything. There was momentum for TC to win Best Actor and I guess that could still happen, but that would be a tragedy far worse than having to watch this film again. I have only seen 4 of the 5 Best Actor performances and his is by far the bottom of the run.

Blue Moon

I loved this film so very much. It felt like it was written for me. It is about one night towards the end of Lorenzo's Hart life. His claim to fame was working with the great Richard Rodgers (Andrew Scott), as a duo they wrote some of the great standards from hte 30s and 40s, including Blue Moon, The Lady is a Tramp, Manhattan, My Funny Valentine, etc. Hart was the lyricist and on this night attends the opening of Oklahoma!, which is the new production by Rodgers with his new partner, Oscar Hammerstein.

Hart leaves the performance early and chats with the bartender at Sardis (Bobby Cannavale back to form from his early indi days). They chat about Casablanca, it's story, lines, characters. A gent in the bar also joins in, he is a young e.b. White, about to write a children's book!

I hung off every word, this could have been a play, but it still works. Great writing and dialogue, and exceptional acting. I really really want Ethan Hawke to win this, but I am unsure he will as the category is full of great acting. He won't care, he is better than that, but geez, if somehow he does get up, you will hear me screaming with joy all over the country!

Weapons

I am not a fan of pure horror, but I don't mind a good thriller, with horror elements, eg The Shining, The Sixth Sense, Get Out. Weapons falls into this category. I knew it was horror going in, but that was all. I was only watching it due to it being on the Oscar list and I have heard good things about Amy Madigan's performance. It also stars Julia Garner and Josh Brolin who are always great. 

The premise is simple, every child in Julia Garner's class (she is the teacher) disappears at 2.15 one night bar one child. The small town is beside themselves, where are the children and what happened. Basically, a classic premise, but what pushes this above and beyond your basic thriller/horror, is the sequence of the movie and the superb acting. The movie is told out of sequence, which really raises the edge of your seat, what on earth is going on, and saves serious details for towards the end. The acting is great. Anything more is spoilers, and this is a movie best gone into fresh. I will say I did work out roughly what happened very early on, but not how. As the how unravels, the horror is contained within, but is so very well done you cannot help but smile.

Only one Oscar Nom, for Amy Madigan, for Best Supporting Actress, seems likely to win, with only Wunmi Mosaku's performance in Sinners as the other likely win.

Bugonia

Another Bonkers film from Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone. Emma Stone is the CEO of a pharmaceutical company. Teddy (the always brilliant and utterly robbed - he too should have been nominated - Jesse Plemons) is a conspiracy theorist who believes his mother was poisoned by the company.

He also believes that Emma Stone's Michelle is an alien, and along with his autistic cousin Don, they kidnap Michelle to prove their theory. There are flashbacks to his childhood and his mother, which enlighten the story, but to tell more would be wrong. You need to go with this film, and if you do the pay off is stellar. I loved this film. Both Stone and Plemons are phenomenal in this. It won't win anything, but I am just pleased it exists!

Hamnet

I meant to read this when it came out all those years ago, I have a copy at home and still haven't read it. I love my Shakespeare, so of course I knew the story. And I knew what the film covered, so I really went into this one fully prepared to be completely and utterly annihilated emotionally. Surprisingly, especially if you know me well, that did not happen. Of course I cried and got very uspet, but I was not the mess I thought I would be. Expectations...they are a funny thing.

Based on the death of Hamnet, Shakespeare's only son, and the grief of the family, particularly his wife, this is a tragedy of...well, Shakespearean emotions.

It feels like a play, it is beautifully filmed and the acting is superb. Jesse Buckley, (who I first saw in Chernobyl, then The Lost Daughter, Women Talking, and Wicked Little Letters all within a month of each other) is phenomenal in this. It is a heart wrenching and soul destroying performance, and if she does not win this Oscar I will be very surprised. This is utterly hers, the beautiful Paul Mescal was robbed, Chloe Zhao's direction is also amazing. It will probably only win Best Actress, but it is a very fine film.

The Secret Agent

I sadly missed this one, which is a shame as it sounds really good.

Train Dreams

Robert, a lumberjack working the great northern railway, Joel Edgerton is perfect in this blokey monosyllabic role. He meets Gladys in town and they fall wildly in love, build a log cabin in the woods and have a child. He spends many months working the railway, it is a deep, dark and traumatic existence. He comes home in one break to find his wife and child missing. Deeply traumatised, we follow him through his life and witness him witness great change in his world, specifically flight.

This is a really beautiful film, stunningly shot, but haunting and traumatic to watch. Up for 4 Oscars, it won't win a thing, which is terrible given Best Song is a great Nick Cave tune, perfectly suited to this tragic film.

It Was Just An Accident

I loved this haunting thriller. A family driving late in the night, hit a stray dog and their car breaks down. They are near a mechanic and wait for their car to be fixed. The driver is recognised by the mechanic by the squeak of his prosthetic leg, and is thought to be his former tormentor in an Iranian prison. The next day he kidnaps the tormentor to bury him alive, but the Iranian says he is not a tormentor, the mechanic is confused. And so the cat and mouse play continues, is he really the tormentor, and others also from the prison are called into play. 

This is a really good indicator of the times we are currently living in. The Iranian film-maker currently has a 20 year ban from working in Iran, but still continues to make and release films, this one financed by France. I really recommend this one, it is harrowing in parts, but not quite as bad as it sounds. It will not win anything, but just by being nominated it gets important politics recognised!