OSCAR WATCH 2018: THE PREDICTIONS

As a film buff, I have always called The Oscars my religion!

Tongue-in-cheek, sorta, kinda...

My love is for all film, specifically silent and classic film, the gritty films of the 70s, 90s true indie films, foreign film, and documentaries.

With so much to draw from, it is very difficult to pick favourites. 

However, I love Casablanca, City Lights, North by Northwest, Manhattan, La Strada, Delicatessen, Some Like It Hot, Dog Day Afternoon, High Fidelity, Bringing Up Baby, The Royal Tennanbaums, The Big Lebowski, When Harry Met Sally, On the Waterfront, Singin' in the Rain, Magnolia, Roman Holiday, The Player and Midnight Cowboy...to name a few, well you get the picture.

And it is because of my love of this amazing heritage that I love The Oscars. In recent years they have become staid and a little challenging, and after last years debacle I did wonder if my love of this day had wore out its welcome.

I miss the surprises of yesteryear, and with each passing year, the greats are no longer there to bring out and add a bit of history to the event. This year is the 90th anniversary, so I do have hopes of something historical and sentimental, you just never know. And I guess that is why I still watch them.

And so for the last 20 or so years (possibly more, I have no idea!) I try to predict who will win, this doesn't always equate to who I would like to win, so I offer up my alternatives. If there is no who should win, I don't have enough personal information to make that choice.

Since I have had my blog, I pop it up the day before for prosperity.

I am always keen for chatter about what I place here, so let me know if you agree or disagree and why!!!

So onto my predictions!

Best Picture

It is a tough year, so many films I love. I saw 7 of the 9 films nominated, missing out on Dunkirk and Call Me By Your Name. Both of those look pretty amazing from what I can see. So you have 9 superb films.

But the race is between The Shape of Water, and Three Billboards. A lot of punters are saying Get Out is a dark horse and look I love nothing better than a surprise and if that happens I would be totally blown away, but I suspect it will not.

Who will win: Three Billboards.

A week ago, this was a shoe-in, but The Shape of Water seems to be climbing the charts. The Academy doesn't do fantasy, sure Return of the King won, but that is a whole other realm to this. Three Billboards is a great film, ensemble cast, well written and so forth. It is totally deserving of the win and it the kind of film that does win. I am sticking to my guns with this! (But trust me it took a lot of deliberating to do so)

Who should win: The Shape of Water

This is my favourite film and I feel a far superior film to Three Billboards. Equally as wonderful ensemble cast, stunningly shot, fantasy but clever, people love it. I will be happy to be proven wrong in this category if this gets up and you will hear me squealing with joy all over The Hunter.

Director

This is a great group of people, all deserved of the golden boy. But this is a simple one.

Who will win/Who should win: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

This is stunningly directed, his attention to detail magnificent. The story, the acting, the everything. It is his masterpiece thus far, and if you have seen Pan's Labyrinth, that is really saying something. 

Actress in a Leading Role

What a stunning line up. All totally deserving of winning. Sally Hawkins, in particular, not a single line in the movie, she shines without saying a word and that is really something. However...

Who will win/Who should win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards

This is a tour de force performance from a tour de force actress. I have loved Frances since 1996, when she had the double whammy of Lone Star and Fargo, winning her first Oscar for the later. Since then she has just acted everyone else off the screen. She is unapologetic, real, brilliant, sassy, and no fucks given. And in a year where women are at the forefront of a reckoning, this is the woman to lead us. The performance in Three Billboards still stays with me, it was haunting, and crazy, and human, and real. I cannot wait to hear her acceptance speech.

Actor in a Leading Role

Again, a fine line up, but nothing comes close to...

Who will win/Who should win: Gary Oldman, Dunkirk

The actors actor, Gary is a solid character actor, and by god he is overdue. But still, this is his finest performance, anyone else could have gotten lost under all that makeup and prosthetics, but whilst you would never know at at glance who it was, every now and then little twinkle in his eye showed Mr Oldman. He held this film together, and should indeed win.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Oh my goodness, what a group of fine ladies but really it is between Laurie Metcalfe and Allison Janney. Two of the finest actresses around, if any year should have a tie, this is the one!

Who will win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya

Janney is superb in this role, scarily so. She has deservedly won ever other award she was up for and I cannot see it being any different tomorrow. I am thrilled to see CJ at the podium, so this is a no-brainer

Who should win:  Laurie Metcalfe, Lady Bird

However, I have a very soft spot for Metcalfe. She stole every scene from Roseanne, on Roseanne, and that's saying something. She has always shone in small parts on the big screen, and big parts on the stage. Respected and revered, she shows why in Lady Bird. She broke my heart in this film, she was simply outstanding, in a lovely understated way. If there was any upset I'd be happy with, this is it!

Actor in a Supporting Role

Again, a great list of remarkable performances from remarkable actors, but I see this only going one way!

Who will win/Who should win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards

So very good in so many films, a true character actor, he should have won previously for Moon. This is his year. This part, more than a supporting role, was layered with twists and nuances only he could play. I haven't seen anyone transform so much on screen as he does here. And not only that he holds his own and then some against the formidable McDormand. This is a force to be reckoned with, and most deserved.

Original Screenplay

This is the most difficult category to select, because every script is so very original and so very wonderful. It is the last category I have decided on and to be honest I am still totally unsure. There is always one category that stumps me and this year this is it.

Who will win/Who should win: Get Out

I think this is the only category where this film will get up. It IS the most original script, audacious and remarkable, it deserves to win, I want it to win, let's just see.

Adapted Screenplay

Only one film stands out here

Who will win/Who should win: Call me by your Name

I thought this before I realised the wonderful James Ivory was behind it. Perfection. That seals the deal!!

Animated Feature

Everyone probably knows my lack of enthusiasm for animation by now, unless it is Toy Story. So surprisingly I have seen none of the films, although Loving Vincent does sound remarkable. And my initial thought was that will win, until I did my research...

Who will win: Coco

Pixar, say no more, they rarely lose.

Who should win: Loving Vincent

Cause it looks really good and hello, Van Gogh!

Documentary Feature

I love this genre, but sadly have had no access to any of the films this year. So I did my research, and wow, I cannot wait to see all of them.

Who will win/Who should win: Faces Places

Firstly, I know of Agnes Varda well, although I do not think I have seen any of her documentaries. Secondly, this sounds like perfection. Surely she will win!

Foreign-Language Film

Again, seen none, and had to do my research, from what I have read, all fingers point to one fantastic film.

Who will win: A Fantastic Woman, Chile

Original Score

Have heard all four of the five, and the one that still resonates is The Shape of Water.

Who will win/Who Should win: The Shape of Water

Original Song

Again, no idea, so I did some research

Who will win: Remember Me, Coco

Honestly, I have no idea!

Sound Editing

This almost always goes to war films

Who will win:  Dunkirk

Sound Mixing

This almost always goes to music films or war films...

Who will win: Dunkirk

Who should win: Baby Driver

Make Up and Hairstyling

Who will win/Who should win: Darkest Hour

Pretty much a no-brainer

Costume Design

Who will win/Who should win: Phantom Thread

A film about stunning costumes, this should also be a no brainer.

Cinematography

This is difficult, a lot of great looking films

Who will win: Blade Runner 2049

All my research points towards this, plus other wins and it DID look amazing

Who should win: The Shape of Water was beautifully filmed

Production Design

Again, difficult

Who will win/Who should win: The Shape of Water

The attention to detail in every scene is astonishing, especially in Elisa's apartment. The whole thing was stunning and lush.

Film Editing

Another difficult one, anything could win.

Who will win: Dunkirk

Seems to be the frontrunner, plus War almost always wins.

Visual Effects

Who will win: Blade Runner 2049

Seems to be the likeliest contender

Documentary Short Subject

Who will win: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405

No idea, but this sounds ok and a lot of people are predicting it!

Short Film, Live Action

Who will win: DeKalb Elementary

Seems to be between DeKalb and The Eleven O'Clock, but DeKalb Elementary about a school shooting, seems more timely.

Short Film, Animated

Who will win: Revolting Rhymes

No idea, seems to be between this, the Basketball one (but it is getting late backlash) and Garden Party. I'm going with Dahl!