OSCAR WATCH 2026: The Predictions

Oscar Watch 2026

or rather 2025!

For those new to Oscar Watch, I have been blogging about my love for the Oscars and predicting (or rather, trying to predict) the winners for many years. But I have been doing this for much, much longer than my blog, the earliest I can find is 1999. My average of correct predictions is 15-17 out of 24/25/16. My best is 2018 with 23 predictions correct, and I have gotten 20 a few times. I have definitely improved over the years, but a lot of changes in voting, membership in recent years have made it more difficult to predict. I have a lot of reputable sources I read, along with the knowledges of what is usually likely to win based on previous years. But like any ballot, there are wild cards, they can through you.

So, I like to share who I think will win, and who I would like to win. They are sometimes the same, but quite often not. 

Oh, and do not mention the Golden Globes to me, nothing irritates me more. Yes, I watch them because I do love a spectacle. But what wins there has absolutely no indication as to who might win at The Oscars. The Hollywood Foreign Press vote for the GGs, and they are a strange bunch of people from each/most (who can really know!?!) countries. The Australian rep is always someone you have never heard of. They have more acting categories and for a very long time you could buy a win! True!! Supposedly not so much anymore. So if I read an article that mentions them, I can tell the person writing it has absolutely no understanding of things and is not a proper journalist!

Rant over, let's begin!

Best Picture

Here is my personal ranking:

One Battle After Another

Frankenstein

Bugonia

Hamnet

Sentimental Value

Sinners

F1

Train Dreams

Marty Supreme

Can't rank The Secret Agent as I did not see it.

This has been between One Battle After Another and Sinners, and One Battle seems to be edging the other out.

Who will win: One Battle After Another

Who I want to win: One Battle After Another

Actor - Leading

Extraordinary acting from everyone.

Michael B Jordan's duel role surely has it in the bag!

Leo could get up and I am there for it. 

If Ethan wins, you will hear me screaming all over the world, lol!

Who will win: Michael B Jordan

Who I want to win: Ethan Hawke

Actor - Supporting

Anyone can win this, but I think Penn will get his third gold man and deservingly so. But I have a soft spot for Elordi's Monster in Frankenstein.

Who will win: Sean Penn

Who I want to win: Jacob Elordi

Actress - Leading

So many stunning performances, give them all an Oscar!

Who will win: Jessie Buckley

Who I want to win: Jessie Buckley

Actress - Supporting

Amy has been lauding it over the rest the entire season. Wunmi Mosaku could be a surprise win.

Who will win: Amy Madigan

Who I want to win: Amy Madigan

Director

Surely after all these years it is Paul Thomas Anderson.

Who will win: Paul Thomas Anderson

Who I want to win: Paul Thomas Anderson 

Original Screenplay

Who will win: Sinners

Who I want to win: Blue Moon

Adapted Screenplay

Who will win: One Battle after Another

Who I want to win: Frankenstein

Cinematography

Who will win: One Battle After Another

Who I want to win: Frankenstein

International Feature

Who will win: Sentimental Value

Who I want to win: Sentimental Value

Documentary Feature

I have seen none of these, so going on my research.

Who will win: The Perfect Neighbor

Animated Feature

Again, yet to see.

Who will win: KPop Demon Hunters

Original Song

Diane Warren will lose again!

Who will win: Golden by KPop Demon Hunters

Who I want to win: Train Dreams from Train Dreams - Nick Cave, but of course!

Original Score

A film with music throughout must win this one and should win this one.

Who will win: Sinners

Who I want to win: Sinners

Film Editing

Who will win: One Battle After Another

Production Design/Costume Design/Hair and Makeup

Who will win: Frankenstein

Who I want to win: Frankenstein

Visual Effects

Who will win: Avatar: fire and ash

Who I want to win: F1

Sound

Who will win: F1

Who I want to win: F1

Animated Short

Who will win: Retirement Plan

Live Action Short

Who will win: The Singers

What I want to win: A friend of Dorothy

Documentary Short

Who will win: All the empty rooms

Casting

Who will win: Sinners

Who I want to win: Sinners

I will do a what actually happened/fashion blog after the big event tomorrow afternoon.

Enjoy, and tell me your thoughts!!!

OSCAR WATCH 2024

 It was a good show, some great moments and Conan was really good.

As expected, I didn't do great, only 13 correct (which means 10 wrong).

You can read about my predictions here.

I totally bummed on all the shorts, and utterly by fault, I usually spend a good couple of hours researching these, but I was in and out quick this year. I totally underestimated Anora, even though I thought it was the better film, so am pleased for those mistakes. I had no clue about the Animated Feature, lol, I never do. And I really thought Timothee would win. He did not...

The opening was great, long but great. The LA film homage was really good, rolling into Cynthia and Ariana who were superb with their Wizard of Oz, The Wiz, and Wicked. Both amazing, but Cynthia is just a goddess, watch her sing those incredibly high and long notes, she nails them effortlessly. She is a natural, and a genius, her voice is like butter. Conan was great, funny, himself. I loved Adam Sandler helping out. 

The presenting was mostly good, sometimes great. I loved how they paid homage to the Cinematographers and Costume designers, they have done this with the acting noms in years past. It does take longer, but to do this to 'lesser' categories makes a lot of sense. Andrew Garfield and Goldie Hawn were lovely together, very cute. Ben Stiller, as always, hilarious. June Squibb and Scarlett Johansen were very funny, loved them. Mick Jagger was a true surprise, and very funny. Mark Hamill and Quentin Tarantino brought certain gravitas to the proceedings. It was lovely to see Billy back on the stage with Meg Ryan, 37 years since he first hosted The Oscars...oh vey!

Speeches are always a thing. There were some great speeches from some of the minor awards, Costume Design, Animated Feature etc. Kieran Culkin's was funny and spot on, as expected. Sean Baker hit the right note with each win, classy. Walter Salles' gave a lovely speech for International Feature. Adrien Brody needed a strong look from John Lithgow, what a pain. Mikey Madison was also great.

I don't get the wasted time on James Bond. Halle Berry looked amazing, the singers were ordinary, Adele must be rethinking her semi-retirement. 

I liked that Morgan Freeman spent some time talking about Gene Hackman at the beginning of the In Memoriam. We lost some greats this year, the time wasted on fluff like Bond should have been spent honouring David Lynch or James Earl Jones. Also there were, as usual, some key omissions! Shannon Doherty, Alain Delon (seriously!!!???), Bernard Hill, Michelle Trachtenberg and more. Do they even have researchers?

Even the Quincy Jones tribute seemed out of place, yes he scored for films and was nominated, but not for anything that great. I think it was just to get Oprah and Whoopi on the stage together. They are always great to see. But poor Queen Latifah singing Ease on Down the Road, Aye Karumba, she deserves better.

Back to the good, was thrilled to hear my main man, Nick Offerman doing the voice over work, perfection and funny.

Thrilled for all the Anora love, go in blind, I didn't know much about it and really loved it. Was superb and nice to see small indies winning. I did split my director/movie votes between The Brutalist and Anora. I missed most of the Anora wins, hence my low score, but happy to have them win over my choices.

I still think Timmy was robbed!!!

And I dream about the kind of speech Isabella Rossellini would have given. I love her date was Laura Dern, except that had me excited there would be a David Lynch tribute...oh well, never mind.

But in all, it was a solid 7 out of 10.

And now to what we all care the most about, the Farshun!!!!!

Let's start with those bringing the drama to the show. Amazing dramatic, large gowns, I love it. Especially Cynthia's emerald velvet, clever! And Halle Berry as a Glitter Ball, bloody love it!

   

And I love that the men are embracing fashion more and more. Bowen Yang (lurve Bowen) looked amazing! Colman showed his flair with red.

Then there is the sleek and classic styles. Love Scarlett, Amy, and Meg in Velvet.

OK Worst dressed

My top 5 best dressed in no order:

OSCAR WATCH 2024: the predictions

 Greetings and welcome to another year of Oscar Watch.

I have been trying to watch as many films as I can, and did well.
You can read about them here

This year has been difficult with an ever changing landscape of issues and drama. This made it more difficult to make decisions, but here we go!

Best Picture

I watched all the films bar one (I'm Still Here, couldn't get a hold of it). My faves were A Complete Unknown, Wicked, and Anora. I also enjoyed Conclave, Emilia Perez, Dune: part two, The Substance, and Nickel Boys. I was so so about The Brutalist.

I like to pick who will win, but not necessarily who I want to win, so I add both to my predictions.

Will win: The Brutalist

Should win: Anora

Director

Always difficult when 10 films are chosen, but only 5 for director. I am splitting the votes, and going Anora

Will win:  Sean Baker, Anora

Should win: Sean Baker, Anora

Actress in a Leading Role

Between Demi Moore and Mikey Madison. Demi has been the front winner all along, but there has been a slight turn for Mikey in this last week.

Will win: Demi Moore, The Substance

Should win: Mikey Madison, Anora

Actor in a Leading Role

This has been Adrian Brody all along but Timothee won the SAG, it is between them

Will win: Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Should win: Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Actress in a Supporting Role

Zoe Saldana has won everything, but this can often be a wildcard and so many in this category are deserving. I thought Monica Barbaro was perfection as Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown, and Felicity Jones really brought the heart to The Brutalist. But Isabella Rossellini brought so much to Conclave, without saying much at all, given her pedigree and her career, this could be a steal...I certainly hope so.

Will win: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

Should win: Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Actor in a Supporting Role

Kieran Culkin is probably the only shoo-in, will and should win.

Having said that every other nominee is deserving and gave great performances.

Will win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Should win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Original Screenplay

I think this will go to A Real Pain.

Will win: A Real Pain

Should win: A Real Pain

Adapted Screenplay

All great adaptations, so hard to say

Will win: Conclave

Should win: Nickel Boys

International Feature

This is between Emilia Perez and I'm Still Here.

I have only watched Emilia Perez but think it will still win despite the drama.

Will win: Emilia Perez

Animated Feature

No idea, but my research says The Wild Robot

Will win: The Wild Robot

Documentary Feature

Again, I have seen none of them, but my research says it is between No Other Land and Porcelain War about Palestine and Israel and Ukraine. 

Will win: No Other Land

Original Score

The Brutalist is the only score I remember noting as I watched the nominated films and my research says it's the one.

Will win: The Brutalist

Original Song

Some great songs here, but El Mal seems to be the one. However, I love the Elton John and Brandi Carlisle collaboration

Will win: El Mal, Emilia Perez

Should win: Never Too Late, Elton John: never too late

Cinematography

Everyone says The Brutalist, and it was shot incredibly beautiful, so makes sense to me.

Will win: The Brutalist

Should win: The Brutalist

Costume Design

Wicked is the one that stands out for me, and my research. However, Conclave and A Complete Unknown really took you into the worlds of their films.

Will win: Wicked

Editing

Editing musicals usually can win, so you'd think Wicked and Emilia Perez but Conclave is leading it all.

Will win:  Conclave

Makeup and Hairstyling

The Substance must be the winner here, how can it not?

Will win: The Substance

Production Design

Another difficult one, every nominee created worlds that were synonymous with their subject matter. I thought The Brutalist looked amazing, and that is who I think should win, but I do think Wicked will win.

Will win: Wicked

Should win: The Brutalist

Sound

This can only be Dune: part two

Will win: Dune: part two

Visual Effects

Again, Dune

Will win: Dune: part two

Animated Short

I research all the shorts, but really is a crap shoot.

Will win:  Wander to Wonder

Live-Action Short

Will win: The Last Ranger

Documentary Short

Will win: Incident

OSCAR WATCH 2023

OK, here we go, I haven't had a lot of time to ponder this year nor see a lot of the films, and I haven't had a lot of time to do my research on the lesser categories.

As always, who will win and who I would like to win.

I don't do the later if I have not seen enough films.

And not long to see how poorly I fared!

Best Picture

I haven't seen Triangle of Sadness, Tar, or Avatar but I do not think they would get up. I have seen the rest bar All Quiet on the Western Front and it could be a contender. As could The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis or The Fablemans. I don't think Women Talking is a contender, nor is Top Gun. The only film I would be happy to see beat EEAAO is Elvis. I am sticking with EEAAO because it IS everything!

Who Will Win: Everything, Everywhere All at Once

Who Should Win: Everything, Everywhere All at Once

Director

Only seen 3 of the 5 nominated, but I think it will be The Daniels. EEAAO is a remarkable film, with remarkable direction, I think they will get up and I want them to,

Who Will Win: The Daniels

Who Should Win: The Daniels

Actor in a Leading Role

I have seen all performances except Bill Nighy's, and they are all fine. This is difficult, it will be between Brendan Fraser for The Whale or Austin Butler for Elvis. Fraser's performance is a transformation and heartbreaking and he has had a revival of sorts, but how many people saw that little film? Butler also transformed, but in such a way there were moments you could not tell the difference between him and the real deal.  It really could go either way, I have no idea who will win. Can't they both?

Who Will Win: Austin Butler for Elvis

Who Should Win: Austin AND Brendan

Actress in a Leading Role

This is another tough one, Cate Blanchett is winning a lot but so is Michelle Yeoh. I think that Michelle is more than deserving and Cate already has 2 Oscars and you know she will have more opportunities. Again, can't they both win.
The others don't come close

Who Will Win: Michelle Yeoh For EEAAO

Who Should Win: Michelle AND Cate

Actor in a Supporting Role

This is a slam dunk, Ke Huy Quan will win for EEAAO, there are some great performances in this category, but I think our beautiful friend will win.
He is the glue that holds that film together and gets 2 amazing moments PLUS he has a great story, is adorable and everyone loves him! Short Round for the Golden Boy

Who Will Win: Ke Huy Quan for EEAAO

Who Should Win: Ke Huy Quan for EEAAO 

Actress in a Supporting Role

This is not as easy as it looks, everyone is a contender and a heavy weight. The money is on Jamie Lee Curtis and I think she will win, but Kerry Condon could pull an upset. She was strong in that film. Hong Chau was perfect in The Whale and Stephanie Hsu probably should win, she was phenomenal.

Who Will Win: Jamie Lee Curtis for EEAAO

Who Should Win: Stephanie Hsu for EEAAO

Original Screenplay

There are some great screenplays in this category but EEAAO is so very original, how can it not win!?

Who Will Win: EEAAO

Who Should Win: EEAAO

Adapted Screenplay

This is a little more complex, I think All Quiet on the Western Front will win but Women Talking could also pull it off, a nod for all the amazing Sarah Polley does.

Who Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Who Should Win: Women Talking

International Feature

Slam dunk, All Quiet on the Western Front

Who Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Animated Featured

Again, another slam dunk, Pinocchio

Who Will Win: Pinocchio

Documentary Feature

From my research, Navalny looks the likely contender

Who Will Win: Navalny

Original Score

All Quiet has been talked up in all my research but never under-estimate a sentimental vote for an aging John Williams for The Fabelmans

Who Will Win: The Fabelmans

Original Song

Don't know alot about these, but everyone is predicting Naatu, Naatu from RRR

Who Will Win: Naatu Naatu from RRR

Cinematography

This looks likely to go to All Quiet. I haven't seen enough to say

Who Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Costume Design

From what I have seen, everyone is a contender here, but I think Elvis will get this, giving Catherine Martin another Oscar to add to her 4, so maybe that will mean a big no. 

Who Will Win: Elvis

Who Should Win: Elvis

Editing

If you have seen EEAAO, this has to go to them

Who Will Win: EEAAO

Who Should Win:  EEAAO

Makeup and Hairstyling

This seems to be between Elvis and The Whale. I think Elvis will get it, it is the showier of the two.

Who Will Win: Elvis

Who Should Win: Elvis

Production Design

Babylon is getting a lot of buzz for this, but Elvis is also remarkable. I am unsure.

Who Will Win: Babylon

Who Should Win: Elvis

Sound

Oh vey, another difficult one, between Top Gun and All Quiet

Who Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Visual Effects

Another slam dunk and this time for Avatar

Who Will Win: Avatar

Animated Short

My research says The Boy, The Mole and having read that book I think yes.

Who Will Win: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and The Hare

Live-Action Short

This is between Le Pupille and An Irish Goodbye. I have no idea.

Who Will Win:  An Irish Goodbye

Documentary Short

Stranger at the Gate and The Elephant Whisperer. 

Who Will Win: The Elephant Whisperer

OSCAR WATCH 2022 -THE PREDICTIONS

This year feels like the hardest to decide. I have watched most of the films within the last week so that is a lot of film washing around in my head.

You can read what I think about all the films I have watched here.

The other thing is the Academy has really opened up who it has let in to vote, it has been taking on all sort of members, and not necessarily those with credentials, depending on what sources you read. This makes predictions less predictable. In the past the SAGs were a great indication as those voting in those categories were pretty much the same people voting in the Academy categories. This is not the case anymore. 

Also The Hollywood Reporter has been doing a few 'interviews' with new members - anonymously - where they explain their reasoning for how they voted for. Oh vey, no wonder they are anonymous. From I just like that film, I can see x and y are better films, but I like Z so I have voted for it in every category OR My cousin is the blah blah on this film so that is why I am voting for it. Not good people!!

So this is just me saying, it's gonna be a bumpy ride, anything can happen, and it feels more like stabbing in the dark choosing who WILL win this year than ever before.

Each year the Oscars gets less and less interesting to me, with me exclaiming at the end of the show, that's it no more. But of course, the Oscar season rolls around and I am sucked into it's vortex yet again. Happily so. I have being doing this for so many decades, I cannot think of anything else.

So let's get into it!

Best Picture

Here are the 10 films in order of my preference:

1. Belfast - so much heart against a terrible situation, plus the music

2. Nightmare Alley - stunning visually, get acting cast, huge story

3. Licorice Pizza - hilarious, great acting, great soundtrack, so much love

4. The Power of the Dog - stunning cinematography, great acting and direction

5. Drive my car - fascinating storyline, well filmed, wonderful acting.

6. Dune - visually magnificent, great story

7. Don't Look Up - great story, funny, superb cast

8. Coda - nice little story, ensemble cast, music

9. King Richard - good story, great performance from Smith.

10. West Side Story - please note I did not see this film. Whilst I love musicals, I have never warmed to the original and feel much the same about Spielberg.

This is crazy, I still think The Power of the Dog, whilst not my favourite, is the BEST film and seems to be the one everyone is predicting. However there seems to be a late groundswell for Coda. People are also throwing around Drive my Car and West Side Story, with 10 films to choose from anything can happen.

What will win: The Power of the Dog

What should win: Belfast 

Actor in a Leading Role

1. Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog

2. Andrew Garfield in Tick Tick Boom

3. Denzil Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth

4. Will Smith in King Richard

5. Javier Bardem in Being the Ricardos

Garfield could be a spoiler here, but I think Smith is it.

Who will win: Will Smith 

Who should win: Benedict Cumberbatch

Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog

2. Ciaran Hinds in Belfast

3. Troy Kotsur in Coda

4. Jesse Plemoms in The Power of the Dog

5. JK Simmons in Being the Ricardos    

This seems a no-brainer.

Who will win: Troy Kotsur

Who should win: Kodi Smit-McPhee

Actress in a Leading Role

1. Olivia Coleman in The Lost Daughter

2. Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye

3. Penelope Cruz in Parallel Mothers

4. Kristen Stewart in Spencer

5. Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos

This was difficult, but I stand by Chastain who shone making a difficult character redeemable. Stewart's name has been tossed around, and I guess anything can happen, but I stand by my choices.

Who will win: Jessica Chastain

Who should win: Olivia Coleman

Actress in a Supporting Role

1. Jessie Buckley in The Lost Daughter

2. Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog

3. Judi Dench in Belfast

4. Aunjanue Ellis in King Richard

5. Ariana Du Bose in West Side Story

I think Ariana has this locked in.

Who will win:  Ariana Du Bose

Who should win: Jessie Buckley

Animated Feature Film

I have not watched any of these films, Encanto, Luca, and Flee seem to be the ones that are most mentioned. But Encanto seems the likely winner.

Who will win:  Encanto

Cinematography

1. The Power of the Dog

2. Nightmare Alley

3. Dune

4. The Tragedy of Macbeth

5. West Side Story

Some great cinematography within the 4 I have seen, but there is only one winner in my mind.

Who will/should win: The Power of the Dog

Costume Design

It is a no-brainer that a film about costume design should win for it's outrageous and stunning costumes.

Who will/should win: Cruella

Directing

1. Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog

2. Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza

3. Kenneth Branagh for Belfast

4. Ryusuke Hamaguci for Drive my Car

5. Steven Speilberg for West Side Story

Whilst 2, 3 and 4 I'd be happy to see take home a golden boy for this category and all totally deserved too, it is Jane's year and so very well overdue. The Piano should have won, but it never stood a chance against Schindler's List.

Who will/should win: Jane Campion

Documentary (feature)

I don't know much about this category, sadly, this year, but I do know everyone says this film will win, and it sounds terrific!

Who will win: Summer of Soul

Documentary (short subject)

I have done a little reading and it comes down to 2 shorts, Queen of Basketball and Audible. So I tossed a coin.

Who will win: Queen of Basketball

Film Editing

Seems to be between Dune and Tick Tick Boom.

Who will win:  Dune

Who should win: Tick Tick Boom

International Feature Film

The worst person in the world is getting a lot of love, I have not seen it. I have heard great things about The Hand of God and I love Paulo's film and television. BUt Drive my Car is the one I have seen, the one I loved, and the one everyone thinks will win.

Who will/should win: Drive my Car

Makeup and Hairstyling

It all comes down to Tammy Faye, without that transformation over so many decades, Chastain would be lost.

Who will/should win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Music (original score)

It is between The Power of the Dog and Dune, I am unsure.

Who will win: Dune

Who should win:  The Power of the Dog

Music (original song)

It seems like it is between Billie Eilish for Bond, Beyonce for King Richard and Lin-Manuel Miranda for Tick Tick Boom. And lord knows the Academy probably wish they could hand out three. I have no bloody idea. Bond seems to be edging others out.

Who will win: No Time to Die

Who should win: Down to Joy from Belfast, because despite Van's politics in his old age, he still writes a feckin' brilliant song, so brilliant, I thought I had heard it before when indeed I had not. 

Production Design

Dune, West Side Story, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth, and Nightmare Alley. All are superb in their own way, however...

Who will/should win: Nightmare Alley

Short Film (Animated)

No idea, but this one is being talked up everywhere and is an Aardman production so it makes sense.

Who will win: Robin Robin

Short Film (Live Action)

Again no idea, but Riz Ahmed is linked to Long Goodbye which has been turning up in all the articles, so...

Who will win: The Long Goodbye

Sound

I have no idea here, some are saying Dune, some are saying Bond.

Who will win: Dune

Visual Effects

Ditto, Dune V Free Guy it appears.

Who will win: Dune

Writing (adapted screenplay)

1. Drive my Car

2. The Power of the Dog

3. The Lost Daughter

4. Dune

5. Coda

Truly, any one of these could win, this is a difficult category this year. Usually - but not always - Best Picture wins Writing also, so who knows.

Who will win: Coda is gaining momentum here. I rank it last because I have seen the original and there is not much change, but the Americans will have no idea about this, hence the unnecessary remake in the first instance.

Who should win: Drive my car - they get Murakami's nuances, and turns a couple of short stories into a great big story, genius!

Writing (original screenplay)

1. Licorice Pizza

2. Belfast

3. Don't Look Up

4. King Richard

5. The Worst Person in the World

Another tough one and Don't Look up could be the spoiler.

Who will win: Belfast 

Who should win: Licorice Pizza

OSCAR WATCH: The Predictions

This is my yearly Oscar Prediction post. This year was unusual, COVID pushed back the award almost 2 months, and films were released differently. I managed to see 7 ot the 8 Best Picture films and a few extras. Nothing really stood out as a wonderful film, though I still had favourites. The general subject of the films was dreary, real, and historical.

As always I try to see how many categories I will get correct, MY best score is 20 our of 24 categories THREE time, in 2009, 2014, and 2018. I always add in who I'd like to see win, as they are often different.

So here goes:

Best Picture

Who Will Win: Nomadland

I admit I am stuck this year, I think of the 8 nominated there are much better films than Nomadland, but this appears to be the frontrunner, so I will stick with it. I would have thought Mank would have appealed more to the Academy, or even The Trial of the Chicago 5.

Who Should Win: The Father

This was such a well made, clever film. Incredibly entertaining, well cast, and the kind of film that should win.

Best Director

Who Will Win: Nomadland

Again, appears to be the frontrunner.

Who Should Win: Mank

I think this is beautifully directed, Fincher is due and it is old Hollywood, at it's worst, shown at it's best!

Actor In A Leading Role

Who Will Win: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Chadwick delivers a fine performance, his final before passing, and everyone thinks he has it bagged, but does he?

Who Should Win: Anthony Hopkins, The Father

Hopkins is outstanding as the father with dementia slowly going mad. This is a return to form and will give this category a good fight to the end.

 

Actor In A Supporting Role
 
Who Will Win: Sacha Baren Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

The favourite is actually Daniel Kaluuya, but I still feel both Judas and the Black Priest nominees will cancel each other out. This is always a wild card category and I think the academy would love to give one to Cohen so here it goes!?

Who Should Win: Paul Raci, The Sound of Metal

Raci was the heart and soul of The Sound of Metal and gave a solid performance, would be lovely to see him and this wonderful film rewarded.
 
Actress In A Leading Role
 
Who Will Win: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

She's playing a historical character and undergoes a physical transformation to do so, this is catnip (as they say) for voters. I am torn between her and Carey Mulligan but I think Viola will win her second for this role.
 
Who Should Win: Carey Mulligan, A Promising Young Woman

Mulligan it outstanding in this, it is the performance that struck me the most. She should win this!

 
Actress In A Supporting Role
 
Who Will Win: Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

Has pretty much won everything leading up to this, so should win.
 
Who Should Win: Amanda Seyfried, Mank

Amanda absolutely light up the screen whenever she appears. And that is something for a black and white long, dreary film! 

Animated Feature
 
Who Will Win: Soul

I have not seen any of the films, but this seems to be the frontrunner.

Cinematography
 
Who Will Win: Nomadland

This is the favourite and is stunning with it's sweeping vistas etc.

Who Should Win: Mank

This was beautifully filmed, giving off real vibes of actual films from the era it was about, which is no mean feat. 

Costume Design/Makeup and Hairstyling

 
Who Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

This is the front runner and is stunning, and I was torn.

Who Should Win: Emma

I really loved the costume design and hair for Emma, so have split these two.
 
Documentary Feature
 
Who Will Win: My Octopus Teacher

I have only seen a snippet of this and it looks delightful. I know nothing of the other films, but this does seem to be the frontrunner, so who am I to deny it!?
 
Documentary Short Subject
 
Who Will Win: A Concerto is a conversation

Everyone is digging this!
 
Film Editing
 
Who Will Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7

This makes a lot of sense, with the film moving in quick succession (aided by clever edits) to replicate the story and the fast paced of Sorkin's script.
 
Who Should Win: The Father

This is cleverly edited to show the unraveling of Hopkins' brain.

 
International Feature Film
 
Who Will Win: Another Round

Everyone is raving about the Danish film. I know nothing of the others.
 
Original Score
 
Who Will Win: Soul
Who Should Win: Soul

This was my favourite score and the front runner, a no-brainer really. I did love the score to Minari too, but Soul is better.

Original Song
 
Who Will Win: Speak Now, One Night in Miami
Who Should Win: Speak Now, One Night in Miami

A really great song, worthwhile, meaningful and popular.

 
Production Design
 
Who Will Win: Mank
Who Should Win: Mank

This is between Mank and Ma Rainey and I liked Mank better, the attention to detail is outstanding, and also the frontrunner.

 
Animated Short Film
 
Who Will Win: If Anything Happens I love you
No idea, this seems popular.

Live Action Short Film
 
Who Will Win: Two Distant Strangers

Again, not a lot of ideas here, it is about the Holocaust, always popular with the Academy but in my research there is a lot of love for it.

 
Sound 
Who Will Win: Sound of Metal
Who Should Win: Sound of Metal

A music film about deafness, sound it incredibly important, this has to win!
 
Visual Effects
 
Who Will Win: Tenant
Who Should Win: Tenant

Not seen any of these films, but everyone says this belongs to Tenant!
 
Adapted Screenplay
 
Who Will Win: The Father
Who Should Win: The Father
Adapted from the play, this is a confusing story, and meant to be so, but if it wasn't for a tight screenplay it would be too difficult to follow. This should win.

Original Screenplay
 
Who Will Win: Promising Young Woman 
Who Should Win: Promising Young Woman

This is an outstanding screenplay, complex and very original. Whilst it has some competition from Minari, Sound of Metal, and Chicago 7, I think it will win!

OSCAR WATCH 2020: The Predictions

As always I try to see how many categories I will get correct. My best score is 20 out of 24 categories THREE times, in 2009, 2014, and 2018.

I always add in who I'd like to see win, as they are usually completely different.

I saw all of the 9 Best Picture films this year and you can read about that here.

Actor In A Leading Role

Who Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

It is a great performance, simple as that.

Who Should Win:  Adam Driver, Marriage Story

I have not seen The Two Popes or Pain and Glory, but I thought Adam Driver was fabulous. I loved Leo too, if he hadn't won previously he'd edge Driver out in my estimations. I do love that Banderas got a nom, his early stuff was fucking amazing and groundbreaking. A lot of people only know him for his crappy action films but his early foreign film and indie film work is something to be seen.

Actor In A Supporting Role

Who Will Win: Brad Pitt, Once Upon A Time in Hollywood

Whilst he jokes that he was really just playing himself, Pitt still shone in this role and since Fight Club he has been making such fabulous character choices, the golden boy is his and deservedly so.

Who Should Win: Brad Pitt, Once Upon A Time in Hollywood

Actress In A Leading Role

Who Will Win: Renee Zellweger, Judy

A remarkable performance in a very unremarkable film. 10 minutes in I knew she would win.

Who Should Win: Renee Zellweger, Judy

Yes I would also love to see Johansson win, but Zellweger had me at hello!

Actress In A Supporting Role

Who Will Win: Laura Dern, Marriage Story

And deservedly so, she steals every scene she is in. A solid actress who has been great since her first nomination all those years ago for Ramblin' Rose. But her renaissance of late has been spectacular. 

Who Should Win: Laura Dern, Marriage Story

But I do have a soft spot for Johansson in Jojo Rabbit.

Animated Feature

Who Will Win: Toy Story 4

Total refresh of a beloved franchise, thanks mostly to Tony Hale's Forky.

Who Should Win: Have not seen enough to comment, so N/A

Cinematography

Who Will Win: 1917
This usually goes hand in hand with Best Picture and the one shot was spectacular, given all the action.

Who Should Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
It's my soft spot this year.

Costume

Who Will Win: Little Women
Everyone loves a costume drama.

Who Should Win: Jojo Rabbit
The clothes are part of the story

Directing

Who Will Win: 1917, Sam Mendes
It really was magnificently directed

Who Should Win: Quentin Tarrantino
Because is film is still outstanding and clever and nuanced.

Documentary Feature

Who Will Win: American Factory
I don't know or have seen any of these films. I did my usual research from the usual critics I respect and they ALL say this is the one. It is backed my Barack and Michelle Obama, so that should give it the edge...I think!

Who Should Win: N/A

Documentary Short Subject

Who Will Win: Learning to skateboard in a warzone
Again, purely from research but it sounds like something the Academy would vote from.

Who Should Win: N/A

Film Editing

Who Will Win: Ford V Ferrari
All those fabulous racing scenes bring this to the forefront.

Who Should Win: Ford V Ferrari

International Feature Film

Who Will Win: Parasite
It may pip 1917 but it will get this. It is a great film and well loved all round.

Who Should Win: Parasite

Makeup and Hairstyling

Who Will Win: Bombshell
This seems to be the hotshot all round, making the girls in the roles look like their real life counterparts.

Who Should Win: Judy
I really thought turning Zellweger into an older Judy (though they are probably roughly the same age)  was remarkable.

Original Score

Who Will Win: The Joker
I do remember how much the soundtrack added to the intensity of the film.

Who Should Win: The Joker
It was the one that stood out the most to me, although you cannot beat the iconic Star Wars music.

Original Song

Who Will Win: Rocketman
Hello, of course they want to give Elton another Oscar, especially as it will be with Bernie this time!

Who Should Win: Rocketman
It is a great song

Best Picture

Who Will Win: 1917
It is the kind of film that wins. Parasite seems to be the one that could take it away and as good as that was I loved others better. 

Who Should Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Or Jojo Rabbit or Marriage Story, those are my faves this year.

Production Design

Who Will Win: 1917
To design all that we saw to take one shot is quite remarkable.

Who Should Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
He recreated that era of Hollywood and it looked amazing.

Animated Short Film

Who Will Win: Hair Love
Huge love for this on the interwebs

Who Should Win: N/A

Live Action Short Film

Who Will Win: The Neighbors' Window
A lot of love for this too and it sounds great

Who Should Win: N/A

Sound Editing/Sound Mixing

Who Will Win: 1917
How can it not, so much going on, one shot, the sound was grating and intense and everything.

Who Should Win: 1917

Visual Effects

Who Will Win: 1917
How did they pull this off in one shot, freaking amazing

Who Should Win: 1917

Adapted Screenplay

Who Will Win: Jojo Rabbit
What a remarkable story, it is a holocaust story with Hitler as a main character and they pulled it off, the screenplay is why!

Who Should Win: Jojo Rabbit
Although I would be really happy to see Greta win this for Little Women

Original Screenplay

Who Will Win: Parasite
A truly original story, it has won a lot already

Who Should Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
QT has won twice already but this is a great story, so would be great to see him win again.