This is my yearly Oscar Prediction post. This year was unusual, COVID pushed back the award almost 2 months, and films were released differently. I managed to see 7 ot the 8 Best Picture films and a few extras. Nothing really stood out as a wonderful film, though I still had favourites. The general subject of the films was dreary, real, and historical.
As always I try to see how many categories I will get correct, MY best score is 20 our of 24 categories THREE time, in 2009, 2014, and 2018. I always add in who I'd like to see win, as they are often different.
So here goes:
Best Picture
Who Will Win: Nomadland
I admit I am stuck this year, I think of the 8 nominated there are much better films than Nomadland, but this appears to be the frontrunner, so I will stick with it. I would have thought Mank would have appealed more to the Academy, or even The Trial of the Chicago 5.
Who Should Win: The Father
This was such a well made, clever film. Incredibly entertaining, well cast, and the kind of film that should win.
Best Director
Who Will Win: Nomadland
Again, appears to be the frontrunner.
Who Should Win: Mank
I think this is beautifully directed, Fincher is due and it is old Hollywood, at it's worst, shown at it's best!
Actor In A Leading Role
Who Will Win: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Chadwick delivers a fine performance, his final before passing, and everyone thinks he has it bagged, but does he?
Who Should Win: Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Hopkins is outstanding as the father with dementia slowly going mad. This is a return to form and will give this category a good fight to the end.
Actor In A Supporting Role
Who Will Win: Sacha Baren Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
The favourite is actually Daniel Kaluuya, but I still feel both Judas and the Black Priest nominees will cancel each other out. This is always a wild card category and I think the academy would love to give one to Cohen so here it goes!?
Who Should Win: Paul Raci, The Sound of Metal
Raci was the heart and soul of The Sound of Metal and gave a solid performance, would be lovely to see him and this wonderful film rewarded.
Actress In A Leading Role
Who Will Win: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
She's playing a historical character and undergoes a physical transformation to do so, this is catnip (as they say) for voters. I am torn between her and Carey Mulligan but I think Viola will win her second for this role.
Who Should Win: Carey Mulligan, A Promising Young Woman
Mulligan it outstanding in this, it is the performance that struck me the most. She should win this!
Actress In A Supporting Role
Who Will Win: Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Has pretty much won everything leading up to this, so should win.
Who Should Win: Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Amanda absolutely light up the screen whenever she appears. And that is something for a black and white long, dreary film!
Animated Feature
Who Will Win: Soul
I have not seen any of the films, but this seems to be the frontrunner.
Cinematography
Who Will Win: Nomadland
This is the favourite and is stunning with it's sweeping vistas etc.
Who Should Win: Mank
This was beautifully filmed, giving off real vibes of actual films from the era it was about, which is no mean feat.
Costume Design/Makeup and Hairstyling
Who Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
This is the front runner and is stunning, and I was torn.
Who Should Win: Emma
I really loved the costume design and hair for Emma, so have split these two.
Documentary Feature
Who Will Win: My Octopus Teacher
I have only seen a snippet of this and it looks delightful. I know nothing of the other films, but this does seem to be the frontrunner, so who am I to deny it!?
Documentary Short Subject
Who Will Win: A Concerto is a conversation
Everyone is digging this!
Film Editing
Who Will Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
This makes a lot of sense, with the film moving in quick succession (aided by clever edits) to replicate the story and the fast paced of Sorkin's script.
Who Should Win: The Father
This is cleverly edited to show the unraveling of Hopkins' brain.
International Feature Film
Who Will Win: Another Round
Everyone is raving about the Danish film. I know nothing of the others.
Original Score
Who Will Win: Soul
Who Should Win: Soul
This was my favourite score and the front runner, a no-brainer really. I did love the score to Minari too, but Soul is better.
Original Song
Who Will Win: Speak Now, One Night in Miami
Who Should Win: Speak Now, One Night in Miami
A really great song, worthwhile, meaningful and popular.
Production Design
Who Will Win: Mank
Who Should Win: Mank
This is between Mank and Ma Rainey and I liked Mank better, the attention to detail is outstanding, and also the frontrunner.
Animated Short Film
Who Will Win: If Anything Happens I love you
No idea, this seems popular.
Live Action Short Film
Who Will Win: Two Distant Strangers
Again, not a lot of ideas here, it is about the Holocaust, always popular with the Academy but in my research there is a lot of love for it.
Sound
Who Will Win: Sound of Metal
Who Should Win: Sound of Metal
A music film about deafness, sound it incredibly important, this has to win!
Visual Effects
Who Will Win: Tenant
Who Should Win: Tenant
Not seen any of these films, but everyone says this belongs to Tenant!
Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: The Father
Who Should Win: The Father
Adapted from the play, this is a confusing story, and meant to be so, but if it wasn't for a tight screenplay it would be too difficult to follow. This should win.
Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: Promising Young Woman
Who Should Win: Promising Young Woman
This is an outstanding screenplay, complex and very original. Whilst it has some competition from Minari, Sound of Metal, and Chicago 7, I think it will win!
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