Sunday, February 24, 2019

OSCAR WATCH: the predictions

As always I try and predict every category up for an Oscar at the Academy Awards. I also add who I would prefer to win.

I've previously posted about most of the movies nominated.

Let's get right into it!!

Best Picture
8 very worthy nominations. Whilst Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, and A Star is Born are definitely contenders. The race seems to be between The Favourite and Roma.

Who Will Win
Roma, it is a great film, with heart, and beautifully shot. It is almost a homage to the way films used to be made. Let's see what happens on he day. I still wonder about the above mentions, there could be an upset.

Who I Would Like To Win
BlacKkklansman, it is a great film, entertaining and important, plus Spike Lee who should have won, let alone be nominated, for Do The Right Thing - a film that still holds up today. This probably won't happen, but oh boy, I would be overjoyed. Having said that, The Favourite would be another good one.

Directing
A mix of great directors, but with 8 films up and 5 directing nods, people miss out. It's a formidable group.

Who Will Win
Alfonso Cuaron for Roma, beautifully directed, I cannot see how he cannot win now.

Who I Would Like To Win
Spike Lee, I would die!! You'd hear me whooping all over The Hunter

Actress in a Leading Role
Every single actress nominated is deserved in this role, it is sad they all cannot get one.

Who Will Win
Glenn Close for The Wife, she has won just about everything and the SAG, which is the best indicator. It was a thankless yet very nuanced role. She does deserve the win.

Who I Would Like To Win
Olivia Coleman, this was such a crazy out there role and she handled it beautifully, she really puts herself out there. And would give a great speech, let's hope for an upset

Actress in a Supporting Role
Such a rough field, Regina King and Amy Adams seem to be the contenders. Weisz and Stone, whilst brilliant, have each won an Oscar and split the vote being the same movie

Who Will Win
Amy Adams, she was formidable in a thankless role, and has been nominated so many times. She is a chameleon and such a wonderful actress, who has never put a foot wrong.

Who I Would Like To Win
Amy Adams

Actor in a Leading Role
Great group of actors, but it is all about Freddie!

Who Will Win
Remi Malek, no contention. He is adorable and gave a once in a lifetime performance. He HAS to.

Who I Would Like To Win
Remi Malek!!

Actor in a Supporting Role
This is the most difficult category, it usually is. An outstanding group of acting. Sam Elliot could be a sentimental win, but I doubt it. Driver was great, but he is young and will be a contender in years to come. Rockwell was great, but he won last year. It is between Marhershala Ali who was brilliant and devastating, and Richard E Grant who was also brilliant and devastating.

Who Will Win
Marhershala Ali, a supreme actor with a complex and nuanced role.

Who I Would Like To Win
Richard E Grant, he is always great in anything he does, even if the movie isn't so good. He was spectacular in this, solid and brilliant and that last scene, jesus! Also his complete and utter joy since being nominated is a thing of beauty to watch, people are loving it, it might mean a swell that way!
If he wins, like Spike, you will hear me whooping!


Adapted Screenplay
A great range of stories here, but Blackkklansman is the most outrageous. I guess it could have been a dry police procedure, but they really gave it entertainment value despite the subject matter.

Who Will Win/Who I Would Like To Win
Blackkklansman

Original Screenplay
Vice was original in it's presentation, but not in subject matter. Roma was mostly improvised, and really no real story. The Favourite was genuinely and uniquely original, no brainer!

Who Will Win/Who I Would Like To Win
The Favourite

Cinematography
Both Cold War and Roma have picturesque b&w cinemtography, but Roma has the artier edge. The Favourite is also arty with it's use of fish eye lens and unusual angles. I think Roma has it.

Who Will Win/Who I Would Like To Win
Roma

Film Editing
This is always one that catches me up, I had The Favourite, but all my reading suggests Bohemian Rhapsody. There is some interesting editing in Blackkklansman, but not enough to stand out.

Who Will Win/Who I Would Like To Win
Bohemian Rhapsody

Foreign Language Film
Don't know much about these films except Roma and Cold War, both are great but Roma has the heart.

Who Will Win/Who I Would Like To Win
Roma

Original Score
No idea here, I remember liking Beale Street and Blackkklansman. My research points me to the latter.

Who Will Win
Blackkklansman

Original Song
This is a no brainer, no one else stands a chance and it's a great song.

Who Will Win/Who I Would Like To Win
Shallow - Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Costume Design
Some great costumes here, but The Favourite is outstanding, The Academy loves period, who doesn't!?! I have heard about Black Panther being a possibility, well I guess we wait and see.

Who Will Win/Who I Would Like To Win
The Favourite

Makeup and Hairstyling
Again, another no brainer, Christan Bale is made up so well you are full of loathing for him as Dick Cheney, even though you know it is not him. They all look remarkably like their counterpart!

Who Will Win/Who I Would Like To Win
Vice

Production Design
Again, another difficult one. Roma obviously went to a lot of detail to recreate Mexico in the 50s. Black Panther created new worlds, but a lot was CGI. First Man recreating the whole space experience, but again CGI. Mary Poppins look like it was delightful. But The Favourite was lush and believable. 

Who Will Win/Who I Would Like To Win
The Favourite

Sound Editing/Sound Mixing
This seems to be all about Bohemian Rhapsody from my knowledge and research.

Who Will Win/Who I Would Like To Win
Bohemian Rhapsody

Visual Effects
This seems to be going to First Man. No idea really

Who Will Win
First Man

Documentary Feature
I have seen none of these, it seems to be between RBG and Free Solo

Who Will Win
RBG

Documentary Short
Again, no idea but from reading and research

Who Will Win
Lifeboat

Animated Feature Film
Only seen Isle of Dogs, which I loved.

Who Will Win
Spider-Man

Who I Would Like To Win
Isle of Dogs

Animated Short Film
Again, no idea but from reading and research

Who Will Win
Bao, because it played before The Incredibles 2

Live Action Short Film
Again, no idea but from reading and research

Who Will Win
Skin keeps popping up

I'll do a follow up Blog after the big day, last year I got a record 20 out of 24 (I have done this previously in 2009 and 2014 but never surpassed it), stay tuned for how I go!!!!






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