Sunday, February 22, 2015

OSCAR WATCH 2015: the predictions

Well, Oscars 2015 is just around the corner and another year of amazing movies.
I have managed to see many of the nominated films this year and I loved a whole bunch of them, which makes these predictions a little harder to write.
You can read reviews of them as follows:
So for those new to the party, I do love Oscar time, as a film buff, how can you not?
I also enjoy a spectacle and will blog all about that after the event.
Each year I try and predict who will win and add my own personal thoughts on who I think should win - quite often two very different things.

(Search Oscars on my blog for previous posts thoughts etc.)
So let's get cracking!!
NB/ I won't predict who I think should win if I have not seen enough films, or have enough information. I always try and predict who will win, cause that's fun!!

Best Picture
Never has the race for Best Picture been so difficult to predict. All the usual sources I read are resorting to flipping coins or just not calling it. I've seen 6 of the nominees and loved every single one of them and all deserve to win. I didn't watch American Sniper as it just didn't sing to me and Selma as I ran out of time. I doubt either stand a chance. 

The race is between Birdman and Boyhood, two of my perfect movies this year. (I also thought Grand Budapest Hotel was perfect, but it won't get up) I loved both of them but would place Boyhood ahead of Birdman, but who will actually win? You know what I have NO IDEA! It looks likely to be Birdman if you go by who is winning awards in over ceremonies, but Boyhood could still get up being a sentimental favourite.
Who will win: Boyhood
Who should win: Boyhood - because it's magnificent, genius, a supreme masterpiece, so clever, so beautiful, so heartwarming, and I haven't stopped thinking about since I saw it last June!
Best Director
There has been much talk of a split this year, Boyhood winning Best Picture and Inarritu winning Director or vice versa. I don't know. Both used unusual ways to direct their film and get their message across, both outstandingly so. So again this is a hard one to call, but I just can't see how the academy can go past the dedication and vision that was Boyhood. 12 years in the filming, things could have gone horribly wrong, but they didn't, they went so very right you cannot find fault anywhere. Linklater it is.
Who will win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Who should win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood - because what a vision, what commitment, what supreme storytelling, nuanced and clever and stunnning!
Best Actress
I have seen 4 of the 5 performances. Yet to see Marion Cotillard and to be honest I suspect she is the one who should win. Based on everything I have seen her in, she is just one of those superb actresses who transforms herself with every role. France's Meryl Streep if you will. She won't win because of that reason, she is foreign and has already won. 

The academy usually rewards young, white ladies in this role, which is a bit perverse, unless they were good, which they usually are. I don't rate Pike as she was in a movie I wouldn't call Oscar worthy, a shlockbuster...le horreur! Jones was great in the supportive wife role. 

It is down to Moore and Witherspoon, the later giving the better and more worthy performance, but again, she has recently won. Moore should have won on more than one occasion in the past, probably for Boogie Nights and Far From Heaven, and whilst this is a great performance, she has acted far, far better. She will undoubtedly win and this pleases me, because even in a bad film Moore is almost always brilliant, she deserves an Oscar, but just not for this performance.
Who will win: Julianne Moore
Who should win: Reese Witherspoon - and I cannot believe I am saying it, as I am sooo not a fan, but her performance in Wild was outstanding. I also think Moore should win, because of the unfairness of her missing out so many times before!
Best Actor
Again 4 out of 5, not seen Cooper. I think all four performances are outstanding. Carell's chilling performance and physical transformation was superb, Cumberbatch's heart wrenching turn also great. But it comes down to Redmayne and Keaton, and I loved both performances and films so very much. Redmayne will inch out Keaton I think, but what a buzz if the later does win!
Who will win: Eddie Redmayne - heartbreakingly unrecognisable as Stephen Hawking, you almost forgot it was a movie
Who should win: Michael Keaton - performance of a lifetime, he went out on a limb, and was funny and poignant and amazing
Best Supporting Actress
I've seen all performances and they were all great. Keira Knightley, who I usually detest, was great. Emma Stone, who I've always loved, very good in a gritty role. Streep was Streep in Into the Woods, which means perfect! And Laura Dern shone as usual in a stunning turn. She is also deserving of this award. 

But it will be Patricia Arquette all the way, the glue that held Boyhood together. For that final scene alone, but for her bravery and brilliance the entire way through. This one is a no-brainer...I'm tearing up as I type, that's how affected I was by her performance!
Who will win: Patricia Arquette
Who should win: Patricia Arquette
Best Supporting Actor
I've seen all bar Duvell in The Judge. Norton, Hawke, and Ruffalo were all outstanding which makes it hard to choose. Especially Ruffalo. But along came J.K. Simmons and blew them all out the water. His role in Whiplash is fierce and career defining. Best Supporting Actor has had a few upsets in the past, but I think Simmons is safe.
Who will win: J.K. Simmons
Who should win: J.K. Simmons
The cinematraphy was outstanding in Birdman, those long shots, that claustrophobic feel.
Who will win: Birdman
Who should win:  Birdman
Film Editing
12 years of film to edit together to give a seamless feel, it has to be Boyhood
Who will win: Boyhood
Who should win: Boyhood
Adapted Screenplay
There is a lot of talk about Anderson's Inherent Vice, but hard for me to say without seeing the film. Whiplash was an outstanding, tight story and many of my sources believe it will get up.
Who will win: Whiplash
Who should win: Whiplash
Original Screenplay
It does not get more original than Grand Budapest Hotel, a film I just adore. Wes Anderson is king for originality, oh what a mind, what a vision, surely there is no contender here?
Who will win: Grand Budapest Hotel
Who should win: Grand Budapest Hotel
Animated Feature
I'm not one for animation, with the odd exception. So I have no clue nor have I seen any of the nominated films. I thought Boxtrolls sounded good, but my sources say Dragon!
Who will win: How to train your Dragon 2
Foreign Language Film
As a foreign film lover it hurts me to say I have no clue this year, I've seen none of the films and only heard good things about Ida and Leviathan with it going either way. I'm going with Ida
Who will win: Ida
Documentary Feature
I've only seen one of the films, Finding Vivian Maier and loved it. I've read a lot about the other four, I think CitizenFour will come out trumps.
Who will win: CitizenFour
Who should win: Finding Vivian Maier
Documentary Short
Haven't had a chance to seek out any of the shorts this year, so going on my readings.
Who will win: Crisis hotline: Veterans Press 1
Live Action Short
The one with Sally Hawkins sounds very good.
Who will win: The Phone Call
Animated Short Film
Again, from my readings!
Who will Win: The Dam Keeper
Original Score
Some great scores here but I really loved the music in Grand Budapest Hotel.
Who will win: Grand Budapest Hotel
Who should win: Grand Budapest Hotel
Original Song
Why does it have to be original? Placement of music can make or break a film and most of my favourite musical moments in film include a non-original song. I should be on the Academy!!!! Anyways, it appears the song from Selma has resounded with a lot of people. As long as that fuck-awful song, Everything is Awesome doesn't win I am ok. I haven't heard the Glen Campbell song, but reckon it should win...cause Glen Campbell!!!
Who will win: Glory from Selma
Who should win:  I'm not gonna miss you from Glen Campbell...I'll be me
Visual Effects
Interstellar hands down, stunning! Although those apes riding horses in Dawn of the planet of the apes did look pretty real.
Who will win: Interstellar
Who should win: Interstellar
Sound Editing
Always difficult, usually a war film or a space film. I am thinking American Sniper will edge Interstellar out
Who will win: American Sniper
Sound Mixing
Usually goes with who wins Sound Editing, unless there is a music film, and it almost always goes to that. And with Whiplash having such amazing musical sequences, the stops and starts, it has to go to there.
Who will win: Whiplash
Who should win: Whiplash
Production Design/Costume Design/Makeup and Hairstyling
I believe all of these will go to Grand Budapest Hotel. Wes Anderson's films are always highly stylised but Grand Budapest Hotel made it look like he didn't even try on previous films, that's how good this one was. Superb, such attention to detail. It had to win all three, hands down!
Who will win: Grand Budapest Hotel

Who should win: Grand Budapest Hotel

But really we know the winner will be Neil Patrick Harris, the most anticipated Oscar host in a long, long while. I predict he will be fabulous with a touch fo razzle dazzle, and will host for years to come and be the next Billy Crystal, who was of course the next Bob Hope :)

I look forward to a lovely day sipping champagne, nibbling on goodies and being delighted by spectacles and speeches.

Who do YOU think will or should win???

No comments: