Sunday, February 28, 2016

OSCAR WATCH 2016: The Predictions

I'm not a fan of summer so what a great time of the year to be bombarded by fabulous films in the lead up to The Academy Awards. Disappearing out of the heat into the cool cinema with a choc top has to be my favourite thing to do. And this year, Oscar Watch 2016, has kept me busy indeed.
And I have really loved a lot of the films I saw which is going to make my predictions difficult this year, in fact it’s the first year in a long long time I am really unsure about many categories.

This year – like almost every other year – has been controversial, but that is a whole other post for a whole other time.
However, I really do hope Chris Rock will rise to the occasion and use the platform he has to shake things up. It is a shame others feel they have to boycott the whole experience, why have they not looked to their peers of days long gone. Tim Robbins and Susan Sarandon, Michael Moore, Marlon Brando, and many others have added colour to the broadcast.

Last year I predicted 17 out 24 categories, which isn’t bad, better than my 15/16 average but not getting near my record of 20!
(NB. I only use my Who Will Win are the predictions as I do not always have a prediction for Who Should Win)

How will I do this year?
Stayed tuned after the event for my post blog wrap up!

Best Picture
I have seen seven of the eight films nominated. I missed Bridge of Spies. Never have there been so many films in contention that could win. So far it has been between Spotlight and The Revenant, but with The Big Short winning the Producer’s Guild Award and Mad Max: Fury Road hanging in there, there are possible upsets to be had. Early on I said Spotlight would win (it won for Best Ensemble Cast at The SAGs) , it is the most perfect film of the ones I saw. Personally I also loved The Martian, Trumbo, and Brooklyn. I am splitting differences and going with Spotlight for film and Revenant for director!
Who Will Win: Spotlight
Who Should Win: Trumbo or Spotlight
All worthy but The Revenant looked stunning and real and amazing, and that was before the bear scene.
Who Will Win: The Revenant
Who Should Win: The Revenant
Actor in a Leading Role
Some great performances in the field but it is Leo’s year, he has been passed for some terrific roles in the past, his best being What’s Eating Gilbert Grape. And this year he WAS superb, so no consolation prize. However I thoroughly enjoyed the nuanced dramatic AND comedic performances from both Matt Damon (The Martian) and Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), they were my faves. Fassbender (Steve Jobs) and Redmayne (The Danish Girl) were great but no really in contention when you look at the other three.
Who Will Win: Leonardo Di Caprio
Who Should Win: Leonardo Di Caprio
Actress in a Leading Role
Brie Larson (Room) all the way, a stunning and heart breaking performance. If she wasn’t nominated it would be Cate (Carol) all the way. Jennifer Lawrence (Joy) and Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn) were great in their roles but no match for Brie and Cate. I adore Charlotte Rampling but she is the longshot, her performance in 45 Years was great, but I have seen her do far better elsewhere.
Who Will Win: Brie Larson
Who Should Win: Brie Larson
Actor in A Supporting Role
This is rough, all signs point to Sly (Creed), one of the few films I have not seen. I adored the original Rocky, this will be a sentimental win. My favourite is Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight), he was superb. Tom Hardy (The Revenant) and Christian Bale (The Big Short) were great, but there have done far superior work elsewhere. I have not seen Bridge of Spies, so cannot comment on Mark Rylance
Who Will Win: Sylvester Stallone
Who Should Win:  Mark Ruffalo
Actress in a Supporting Role
Again a very strong field, everyone is predicting Alicia Vikander (the Danish Girl), but I think it could go to any of them. My favourite performances were Jennifer Jason Leigh  (The Hateful Eight) and Kate Winslett (Steve Jobs). But Rachel McAdams (Spotlight) and Rooney Mara (Carol) were also strong. 5 Oscars all round!!
Who Will Win: Alicia Vikander
Who Should Win:  Kate Winslett
Adapted Screenplay
Some great stories this year, and whilst I’d love my hero Nick Hornby to get up for Brooklyn, I do think The Big Short will win. This was a really delightfully entertaining film from a dry book about a dry subject matter, the script turned this into sheer delight despite of that.
Who Will Win: The Big Short
Who Should Win: The Big Short
Original Screenplay
This is between Spotlight – for turning a horrific story into a cracking thriller of a story – and Inside Out – a uniquely original story that appealed on all levels.
Who Will Win: Inside Out
Who Should Win: Inside Out
Foreign Language Film
I’ve seen none, but read about them. Son of Saul and Mustang seem the outstanding ones.
Who Will Win: Son of Saul
Animated Feature Film
I have only seen Inside Out which was remarkable, possibly should have been up for Best Picture. I know Anomalisa is getting a lot of hype.
Who will Win: Inside Out
It’s between The Revenant and Mad Max, but I think The Revenant will win.
Who Will Win: The Revenant
Who Should Win: The Revenant
Film Editing, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
This is where Mad Max comes in, technically it is marvellous.
Who Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Who Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Visual Effects
I loved the effects in Ex Machina, but I think Star Wars: The Force Awakens will win here.
Who Will Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Who Should Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Production Design
A whole other world was created for Mad Max. Whilst The Martian and The Revenant looked amazing and The Danish Girl reminded me of a collection of paintings filmed, Mad Max will deservedly win.
Who Will Win:  Mad Max: Fury Road
Who Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Costume Design/Make Up and Hairstyling
As gorgeous and sumptuous as Carol and Cinderella were (both with Cate Blanchett looking va va voom!) Mad Max is unique and original in it’s design and it’s Make Up and Hairstyling
Who Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Who Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Original Score
I loved the score for Carol and Star Wars is a lovely old favourite, but Ennio Morricone’s sweeping score for The Hateful Eight was perfect and lush and Ennio has never (quelle horreur) won!
Who Will Win: The Hateful Eight
Who Should Win: The Hateful Eight
Original Song
I don’t know a lot about the songs this year, I did a bit of reading, none really appeal, but I a figuring an 8th nomination (no wins) for Dianne Warren paired with Lady Gaga will probably take home the gold.
Who Will Win: Till it happens to you from The Hunting Ground
Documentary Feature
I have only seen Amy which was superb,  I have read about the others, and What Happened Miss Simone seems the closest contender.
Who will win: Amy
Documentary Short Subject
As always I rely on my research, which this year is minimal for the three short categories. So you know, I may as well roll a dice...
Who will win: Claude Lanzmann: Sprectres of the Shoah
Animated Short
Who Will Win: World of Tomorrow
Live Action Short Film
Who Will Win: Day One


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