Oscar Watch, Part Three: The Predictions

I love this time of the year more than anything!!! Oscar time, Oscar, Oscar!

 

I love film, and I guess I do love a spectacle and it doesn't get much more spectacular than The Academy Awards.

 

As a classic movie fan, and an avid Oscars watcher for many years, I love the ceremony and little nods to it's history.

 

For years I have put it out there who I think will win and who I would like to win - more often than not very different answers.

 

Who I think will win is difficult, I try to think like the voters and guess EVERY category. Some years I do well, others not so much.

 

The best score I have had is 20 correct in 2009. My average is 15/16 out of the 24 categories, which isn't too shabby.

 

Who I would like to win is much easier, as this is my personal choice.

 

I do get ranty about commentators who have no idea about the show and it's history, and whilst I love the fashion it's the little moments I live for in an Oscar telecast.

 

Here is a previous post I have written about why I love The Oscars.

 

So onto this year... 

Best Picture

I have seen all films except Captain Phillips.

 

Who Will Win: 12 Years A Slave

This is a really hard category. This is between Gravity, American Hustle and 12 Years A Slave. And I have been teetering over it for weeks. As soon as I saw American Hustle I had it locked in but then I saw 12 Years A Slave and I think it is more of a masterpiece, but it's difficult viewing. Gravity seems to be a late winner. Alfonso won the Director's Guild and that is usually an indicator. And also the Producer's Guild (along with 12 Years A Slave, of which it tied!) It is rare the votes are split with Director and Best Picture being different, and it happened last year but two years in a row? I am going with 12 Years A Slave, but really I have no idea!

 

Who I Want to Win: American Hustle

It was my favourite movie of the lot.

 

Best Director

Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron

You can't beat those scenes in space. And he won the Director's Guild.

 

Who I Want To Win: Alfonso Cuaron

You can't beat those scenes in space. Plus, I have never been so physically affected as I have in the first 30mins of this movie!

 

Best Actor

Who Will Win: Matthew McConaughey

A divine performance, a transformation character and a transformation of the actual actor, from pretty boy to contender. The voter's love this!

 

Who I Want To Win: Matthew McConaughey

I never rated McConaughey, but in the last couple of years, since The Paperboy I think, he has chosen interesting role after interesting role and knocked them all out of the park. I just love that, and he killed me in Dallas Buyers Club. Having said that I think Leonardo Di Caprio is long overdue for an Oscar, and his range in Wolf of Wall Street was stunning. And I loved Chiwetel Ejiofor's solid performance in 12 Years A Slave.

 

Best Actress

Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett

She's won everything, it's a go for Cate!

Who I Want To Win: Cate Blanchett

The rest are fine and on any other year all deserving, but seriously, this is a no brainer.

 

Best Supporting Actor

Who Will Win: Jared Leto

He has won pretty much everything. Transgender character. Disease. The voter's love this!

Who I Want To Win: Jared Leto

I actually loved Jonah Hill in Wolf of Wall Street, a similar transformation to McConaughey. But Jared Leto broke my heart, and you had no idea it was him!

 

Best Supporting Actress

Who Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o

This is hard I do think it comes down to Lupita Nyong'o or June Squibb. I guess for her first role Lupita will have more opportunities and Squibb may never get the opportunity again. But Oscar loves young women. Julia Roberts could be an upset, due to her movement into the Supporting Role. Jennifer Lawrence has also been thrown around as a contender, she was outstanding, but I doubt she'll get back to back wins. I have sat on this one until the last moment and realised at almost every Oscar there is a wild card, the least expected and this year this is that category. But I'm going with Lupita.

Who I Want To Win: Sally Hawkins

Really!?! How do you choose? They all should win. Julia Roberts (another I never rated) should be up for Best Actress, she acted Streep off the screen. Jennifer Lawrence, a bona fida star, showed her astonishing range. June Squibb was luminous AND sassy. Lupita Nyong'o was simply outstanding. But to me Sally Hawkins has been so overlooked for Blue Jasmine. A fine actress, I've been following her for some years, she is always solid and more than held her own against Blanchett which is a force to be reckoned with.

 

Animated Feature

Who Will Win: Frozen

It's the favourite!

Who I Want To Win:  Ernest and Celestine

I have not seen any of these films, I am not a huge fan on animation. However I love the books, Ernest and Celestine.

 

Original Screenplay

Who Will Win: Her - Spike Jonze

Won the Writers Guild, the Academy love Jonze and it is a highly original concept.

Who I Want To Win:  Her - Spike Jonze

Stunning screenplay, original, full of heart, unusual, touching. I loved this film's story.

 

Adapted Screenplay

Who Will Win: 12 Years A Slave

Usually goes with Best Picture win, and it's a formidable adaptation of a loved historical tome.

Who I Want To Win: Before Midnight - Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke

Because between the three of them they make magic. I also adore Steve Coogan, so if he wins for Philomena I would be equally happy.

 

Production Design

Who Will Win: Catherine Martin - The Great Gatsby

Stunning attention to detail, she is the real deal.

Who I Want To Win: Catherine Martin - The Great Gatsby

Stunning attention to detail, she is the real deal. Having said that, each nominee has created a visual masterpiece, so a difficult one.

 

Cinematography

Who Will Win: Gravity

This should be a no brainer

Who I Want To Win: Gravity

I thought I was in space. That is all. Shout out to Nebraska which was postcard picture perfect

 

Costume Design

Who Will Win: Catherine Martin - The Great Gatsby
Those costumes, but American Hustle comes very close I must admit.

Who I Want To Win: Catherine Martin - The Great Gatsby
Those costumes, but American Hustle comes very close I must admit.

 

Documentary Feature

Who Will Win: 20 Feet From Stardom

This was hard, up until today I really thought The Act of Killing would win, but I read a whole lot of blogs from people I rate and this is their choice. The thought is The Act Of Killing should win, but won't as it is simply too difficult a subject matter. I am torn, but gone with the crowd pleaser. I guess we will see.

Who I Want To Win: N/A

I've not seen any of the films

 

Documentary Short

Who Will Win: The Lady in Number 6: Music saved my life

I did some research on each of the films, and this about a 109 year old piano playing Holocaust survivor ticks all the boxes.

Who I Want To Win: N/A

I've not seen any of the films

 

Film Editing

Who Will Win: Gravity

I am guessing Gravity will win most of the technical awards.

Who I Want To Win: Gravity

Stunning editing. You thought you were in Space.

 

Foreign Language

Who Will Win: The Great Beauty

This is the one film that keeps coming up again and again. I've seen the trailer and it looks stunning and rather Fellini-esque!

Who I Want To Win: N/A

I've not seen any of the films

 

Hair and Make-Up

Who Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club

The transformations of both McConaughey and Leto make this a no-brainer.

Who I Want To Win: Dallas Buyers Club

The transformations of both McConaughey and Leto make this a no-brainer.

 

Music (Original Score)

Who Will Win: Saving Mr Banks

This is the contender from all my reading, and it makes sense. Though I imagine Williams' score from The Book Thief is stunning and Gravity was also very good.

Who I Want To Win: Her

I loved the soundtrack to this.

 

Music (Original Song)

Who Will Win: Frozen

This is the favourite plus Idina Menzel!!!

Who I Want To Win: Her or Mandela

I love both equally and cannot chose, love to see U2 or Karen O win.

 

Short Film (Animated)

Who Will Win: Get a Horse

This seems a lock in from my reading. It was the opening short to Frozen and stars Mickey Mouse!

Who I Want To Win: N/A

I've not seen any of the films

 

Short Film (Live Action)

Who Will Win: Just before Losing Everything

A French film about a woman escaping domestic violence.

Who I Want To Win: N/A

I've not seen any of the films

 

Sound Editing

Who Will Win: Gravity

A lot of time there was no dialogue and nothing but 'sound', and it worked.

 

Who I Want To Win: Gravity

A lot of time there was no dialogue and nothing but 'sound', and it worked.

 

Sound Mixing

Who Will Win: Inside Llewyn Davis

Music films almost always win these.

 

Who I Want To Win: Inside Llewyn Davis

Music films almost always win these, and I've heard most of the music and love it.

 

Visual Effects

Who Will Win: Gravity

You thought you were in space!

 

Who I Want To Win: Gravity

You thought you were in space! Although I did love Smaug in The Hobbit.

I'm also looking forward to Ellen as host and the fashion on the red carpet. Stay tuned to find out how I went with my predictions. Unsure how I will go this year, some difficult choices there!